Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research

J. Scott Armstrong ()

General Economics and Teaching from EconWPA

Abstract: Sophisticated extrapolation techniques have had a negligible payoff for accuracy in forecasting. As a result, major changes are proposed for the allocation of the funds for- future research on extrapolation. Meanwhile, simple methods and the combination of forecasts are recommended.

Keywords: forecasting; methods; extrapolation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005-02-04
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 13
View list of references View citations in EconPapers

Downloads: (external link)
http://129.3.20.41/eps/get/papers/0502/0502025.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0502025

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in General Economics and Teaching from EconWPA
Series data maintained by EconWPA ().