Details about Michael Dominic Bauer

Access statistics for papers by Michael Dominic Bauer.

Last updated 2025-04-06. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pba824

Working Papers

2024

1. Corporate Green Pledges
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (1)
   Also in IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2024) View citations (1)
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2024) View citations (1)
2. Green Stocks and Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from Europe
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (1)
   Also in IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2024) View citations (1)
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2024) View citations (1)

2023

3. Perceptions about Monetary Policy
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2022)
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2022)
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2022) View citations (10)
   IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2022) View citations (9)
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2022) View citations (9)
   See also Journal Article Perceptions About Monetary Policy*, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College (2024) View citations (3) (2024)
4. The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (4)
   Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2023) View citations (3)
5. Where Is the Carbon Premium? Global Performance of Green and Brown Stocks
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (7)
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2023)
   Other publications TiSEM, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management (2022) View citations (24)

2022

6. A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (35)
   Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2022) View citations (36)
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2022)
   IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2022) View citations (35)
   See also Chapter A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2022) View citations (35) (2022)
   Journal Article A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press (2023) View citations (50) (2023)
7. Climate Policy Curves: Linking Policy Choices to Climate Outcomes
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
   Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2022) View citations (3)

2021

8. Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (10)
   Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2021) View citations (10)
   IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (2021) View citations (10)
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2021)
   See also Journal Article Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs, Journal of Finance, American Finance Association (2024) View citations (3) (2024)
9. Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (15)
   Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2019) View citations (18)
   2019 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2019) View citations (18)
   See also Journal Article Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty, The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (2022) View citations (24) (2022)
10. The Fed's response to economic news explains the "Fed information effect"
    IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS)
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2020) View citations (29)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2020) View citations (24)

2020

11. An Alternative Explanation for the “Fed Information Effect”
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (16)
    See also Journal Article An Alternative Explanation for the "Fed Information Effect", American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2023) View citations (24) (2023)
12. The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2023) View citations (7) (2023)

2019

13. Interest Rates Under Falling Stars
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (7)
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2017) View citations (23)
    See also Journal Article Interest Rates under Falling Stars, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2020) View citations (58) (2020)

2017

14. Robust Bond Risk Premia
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (22)
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2015) View citations (12)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2015) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Robust Bond Risk Premia, The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies (2018) View citations (57) (2018)

2015

15. Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (7)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2015) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models, Review of Finance, European Finance Association (2017) View citations (33) (2017)
16. Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (6)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2011) View citations (17)
    See also Journal Article Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals (2018) View citations (23) (2018)

2014

17. Inflation Expectations and the News
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Inflation Expectations and the News, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2015) View citations (38) (2015)

2013

18. Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (27)
    See also Journal Article Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2016) View citations (122) (2016)
19. The Shadow Rate, Taylor Rules, and Monetary Policy Lift-off
    2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (1)

2012

20. International channels of the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (5)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2012) View citations (30)
    See also Journal Article International channels of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2014) View citations (112) (2014)

2011

21. Nominal interest rates and the news
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
    See also Journal Article Nominal Interest Rates and the News, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2015) View citations (16) (2015)
22. The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (67)
    See also Journal Article The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2014) View citations (324) (2014)
23. Unbiased estimate of dynamic term structure models
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (6)

Journal Articles

2025

1. Climate policy curves highlight key mitigation choices
   Climate Policy, 2025, 25, (3), 504-510
2. Current Perceptions About Monetary Policy
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2025, 2025, (05), 6

2024

3. Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs
   Journal of Finance, 2024, 79, (1), 173-217 View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs, NBER Working Papers (2021) View citations (10) (2021)
4. Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2024, 2024, (07), 6
5. Perceptions About Monetary Policy*
   The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2024, 139, (4), 2227-2278 View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper Perceptions about Monetary Policy, Working Paper Series (2023) (2023)

2023

6. A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification
   NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2023, 37, (1), 87 - 155 View citations (50)
   See also Chapter A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification, NBER Chapters, 2022, 87-155 (2022) View citations (35) (2022)
   Working Paper A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification, CESifo Working Paper Series (2022) View citations (35) (2022)
7. An Alternative Explanation for the "Fed Information Effect"
   American Economic Review, 2023, 113, (3), 664-700 View citations (24)
   See also Working Paper An Alternative Explanation for the “Fed Information Effect”, NBER Working Papers (2020) View citations (16) (2020)
8. Risk Appetite and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy
   Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2023, 37, (1), 77-100 View citations (21)
9. The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market
   The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2023, 105, (5), 1255-1270 View citations (7)
   See also Working Paper The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market, Working Paper Series (2020) View citations (1) (2020)

2022

10. Current Recession Risk According to the Yield Curve
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2022, 2022, (11), 05 View citations (2)
11. Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty
    The Economic Journal, 2022, 132, (644), 1290-1308 View citations (24)
    See also Working Paper Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty, Working Paper Series (2021) View citations (15) (2021)

2021

12. Climate Change Costs Rise as Interest Rates Fall
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2021, 2021, (28), 05 View citations (1)

2020

13. Interest Rates under Falling Stars
    American Economic Review, 2020, 110, (5), 1316-54 View citations (58)
    See also Working Paper Interest Rates Under Falling Stars, Working Paper Series (2019) View citations (7) (2019)

2019

14. Zero Lower Bound Risk according to Option Prices
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019

2018

15. Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2018 View citations (36)
16. Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2018 View citations (23)
17. Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2018, 36, (2), 196-211 View citations (23)
    See also Working Paper Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models, CESifo Working Paper Series (2015) View citations (6) (2015)
18. Robust Bond Risk Premia
    The Review of Financial Studies, 2018, 31, (2), 399-448 View citations (57)
    See also Working Paper Robust Bond Risk Premia, NBER Working Papers (2017) View citations (22) (2017)

2017

19. A New Conundrum in the Bond Market?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017 View citations (4)
20. Bridging the Gap: Forecasting Interest Rates with Macro Trends
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017 View citations (2)
21. Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models
    Review of Finance, 2017, 21, (2), 511-553 View citations (33)
    See also Working Paper Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models, CESifo Working Paper Series (2015) View citations (7) (2015)

2016

22. Do macro variables help forecast interest rates?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016
23. Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2016, 48, (7), 1439-1465 View citations (122)
    See also Working Paper Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound, Working Paper Series (2013) View citations (27) (2013)
24. Why Are Long-Term Interest Rates So Low?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016 View citations (4)

2015

25. Can we rely on market-based inflation forecasts?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015 View citations (9)
26. Inflation Expectations and the News
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2015, 11, (2), 1-40 View citations (38)
    See also Working Paper Inflation Expectations and the News, Working Paper Series (2014) View citations (5) (2014)
27. Nominal Interest Rates and the News
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2015, 47, (2-3), 295-332 View citations (16)
    See also Working Paper Nominal interest rates and the news, Working Paper Series (2011) (2011)
28. Optimal policy and market-based expectations
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015 View citations (4)

2014

29. Financial market outlook for inflation
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014 View citations (5)
30. International channels of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014, 44, (C), 24-46 View citations (112)
    See also Working Paper International channels of the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy, Working Paper Series (2012) View citations (5) (2012)
31. Options-based expectations of future policy rates
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014 View citations (2)
32. Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Comment
    American Economic Review, 2014, 104, (1), 323-37 View citations (74)
33. The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2014, 10, (3), 233-289 View citations (324)
    See also Working Paper The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases, Working Paper Series (2011) View citations (67) (2011)

2013

34. Expectations for monetary policy liftoff
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (nov18) View citations (5)
35. What caused the decline in long-term yields?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (july8) View citations (3)

2012

36. Correcting Estimation Bias in Dynamic Term Structure Models
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2012, 30, (3), 454-467 View citations (169)
37. Fed asset buying and private borrowing rates
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2012, (may21) View citations (8)
38. Monetary policy and interest rate uncertainty
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2012, (dec24) View citations (17)

2011

39. Signals from unconventional monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (nov.21) View citations (12)
40. What moves the interest rate term structure?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (nov.7) View citations (1)

Chapters

2022

1. A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification
   A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2022, volume 37, 2022, pp 87-155 View citations (35)
   See also Working Paper A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification, CESifo (2022) View citations (35) (2022)
   Journal Article A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification, University of Chicago Press (2023) View citations (50) (2023)