Details about Carlos Carvalho

Access statistics for papers by Carlos Carvalho.

Last updated 2025-04-24. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pca106

Working Papers

2023

1. Demographics and Real Interest Rates Across Countries and Over Time
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2023)
2. Weighted Median Inflation Around the World: A Measure of Core Inflation
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
   Also in IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund (2023) View citations (1)
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2023)
   See also Journal Article Weighted Median Inflation Around the World: A Measure of Core Inflation, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2024) (2024)

2021

3. Taylor Rule Estimation by OLS
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (30)
   See also Journal Article Taylor rule estimation by OLS, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2021) View citations (35) (2021)

2020

4. Anchored inflation expectations
   CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University View citations (9)
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2019) View citations (14)
   See also Journal Article Anchored Inflation Expectations, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association (2023) View citations (29) (2023)
5. Multi-Product Pricing: Theory and Evidence from Large Retailers in Israel
   Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada View citations (14)

2019

6. Macroeconomic Effects of Credit Deepening in Latin America
   Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (4)
   Also in IDB Publications (Working Papers), Inter-American Development Bank (2015) View citations (2)
   Textos para discussão, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil) (2014) View citations (5)
   See also Journal Article Macroeconomic Effects of Credit Deepening in Latin America, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2023) (2023)
7. Macroeconomic Macroeconomic Effects of Credit Deepening in Latin America
   Working Papers, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú

2018

8. Gambling, Risk Appetite and Asset Pricing
   Textos para discussão, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil)
9. Price Selection
   Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada View citations (4)
   See also Journal Article Price selection, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2021) (2021)

2017

10. Approximating Multisector New Keynesian Models
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Approximating multisector New Keynesian models, Economics Letters, Elsevier (2018) View citations (2) (2018)
11. Arco: an artificial counterfactual approach for high-dimensional panel time-series data
    Textos para discussão, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil) View citations (5)
    Also in Textos para discussão, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil) (2016) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article ArCo: An artificial counterfactual approach for high-dimensional panel time-series data, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2018) View citations (35) (2018)
12. Extensive Margin Adjustment of Multi-Product Firm and Risk Diversification
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (1)
13. The perils of counterfactual analysis with integrated processes
    Textos para discussão, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil)
    Also in Textos para discussão, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil) (2016) View citations (3)

2016

14. Demographics and Real Interest Rates: Inspecting the Mechanism
    Textos para discussão, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil) View citations (261)
    Also in 2016 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2016) View citations (247)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2016) View citations (185)
    See also Journal Article Demographics and real interest rates: Inspecting the mechanism, European Economic Review, Elsevier (2016) View citations (233) (2016)
15. Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Monetary Policy
    Textos para discussão, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil) View citations (19)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2016) View citations (14)
16. Online Appendix to "Factor Specificity and Real Rigidities
    Online Appendices, Review of Economic Dynamics View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article Factor Specificity and Real Rigidities, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2016) View citations (12) (2016)
17. Price Selection, Monetary Non-neutrality, and Sticky-Price Models
    2016 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (2)

2015

18. E Se o Brasil Não Tivesse Adotado Câmbio Flutuante em 1999?
    Textos para discussão, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil)
19. Factor Specificity and Real Rigidities
    Textos para discussão, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2013) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article Factor Specificity and Real Rigidities, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2016) View citations (12) (2016)
20. Lift-off Uncertainty: What Can We Infer From the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections?
    2015 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (7)
21. Persistent Monetary Non-neutrality in an Estimated Model with Menu Costs and Partially Costly Information
    2015 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (1)
22. What drives long-run inflation expectations?
    2015 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
23. What if Brazil Hadn't Floated the Real in 1999?
    Textos para discussão, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil)
    See also Journal Article What lf Brazil Hadn't Floated the Real in 1999?, Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE (2015) (2015)

2014

24. Factor SpecifiÂ…city and Real Rigidities
    2014 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
25. Monetary Policy and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Sticky-Price Models
    Textos para discussão, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil) View citations (1)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2014) View citations (2)
26. Real Rigidities and the Cross-Sectional Distribution of Price Stickiness: Evidence from Micro and Macro Data Combined
    Textos para discussão, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil)
27. Selection and Monetary Non-Neutrality in Time-Dependent Pricing Models
    Textos para discussão, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil) View citations (15)
    Also in 2012 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2012) View citations (2)
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2012) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Selection and monetary non-neutrality in time-dependent pricing models, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2015) View citations (22) (2015)

2013

28. Do People Understand Monetary Policy?
    Textos para discussão, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil) View citations (2)
    Also in 2012 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2012) View citations (11)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2012)
    See also Journal Article Do people understand monetary policy?, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2014) View citations (150) (2014)
29. Just Words? A Quantitative Analysis of the Communication of the Central Bank of Brazil
    Textos para discussão, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil) View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article Just Words? A Quantitative Analysis of the Communication of the Central Bank of Brazil, Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil) (2013) View citations (11) (2013)
30. Monetary Policy, External Finance Dependence, and the Cross-section of Stock Returns: A FAVAR Approach
    2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
31. Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Sticky-Price Models with Capital
    2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2012)
32. Time- and State-Dependent Pricing: A Unified Framework
    2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (1)
33. What Explains Japan's Persistent Deflation?
    2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics

2011

34. Sectoral Price Facts in a Sticky-Price Model
    Departmental Working Papers, Rutgers University, Department of Economics View citations (27)
    Also in 2010 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2010) View citations (4)
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2011) View citations (26)
    See also Journal Article Sectoral Price Facts in a Sticky-Price Model, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association (2021) View citations (18) (2021)

2010

35. Aggregation and the PPP puzzle in a sticky-price model
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (25)
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2008) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article Aggregation and the PPP Puzzle in a Sticky-Price Model, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2011) View citations (77) (2011)
36. Loss aversion, asymmetric market comovements, and the home bias
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (18)
    See also Journal Article Loss aversion, asymmetric market comovements, and the home bias, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2010) View citations (14) (2010)
37. State-dependent pricing under infrequent information: a unified framework
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (11)

2009

38. Estimating the Cross-sectional Distribution of Price Stickiness from Aggregate Data
    2009 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2009) View citations (7)
39. The persistent effects of a false news shock
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article The persistent effects of a false news shock, Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier (2011) View citations (25) (2011)

2008

40. Heterogeneous Price Setting Behavior and Monetary Non-neutrality: Some General Results
    2008 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (15)
41. Imperfectly credible disinflation under endogenous time-dependent pricing
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (1)
    Also in Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany (2005) View citations (12)
    FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE), EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil) (2005) View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article Imperfectly Credible Disinflation under Endogenous Time-Dependent Pricing, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2010) View citations (11) (2010)

2005

42. Endogenous Time-Dependent Rules and Inflation Inertia
    Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article Endogenous Time-Dependent Rules and Inflation Inertia, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2004) View citations (65) (2004)
43. Endogenous Time-Dependent Rules and the Costs of Disinflation with Imperfect Credibility
    Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (3)
    Also in FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE), EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil) (2003) View citations (1)
    Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany (2005) View citations (4)
44. Heterogeneity in Price Setting and the Real Effects of Monetary Shocks
    Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (72)
45. The Effects of Heterogeneity in Price Setting on Price and Inflation Inertia
    Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
    Also in Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany (2005) View citations (1)
    Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany (2005) View citations (1)
    Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings, Econometric Society (2004)

2004

46. Myopic Loss Aversion, Asymmetric Correlations, and the Home Bias
    Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings, Econometric Society

1999

47. Endogenous time-dependent rules and inflation inertia: preliminary version
    FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE), EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil) View citations (9)

Undated

48. Sentiment, Electoral Uncertainty and Stock Returns
    Textos para discussão, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil) View citations (1)
49. Transitions in Central Bank Leadership
    Textos para discussão, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil)

Journal Articles

2025

1. Underlying Trends in the U.S. Neutral Interest Rate
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2025, 2025, (10), 6

2024

2. Abrupt monetary policy change and unanchoring of inflation expectations
   Journal of Monetary Economics, 2024, 145, (S) View citations (2)
3. Weighted Median Inflation Around the World: A Measure of Core Inflation
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2024, 142, (C)
   See also Working Paper Weighted Median Inflation Around the World: A Measure of Core Inflation, NBER Working Papers (2023) View citations (1) (2023)

2023

4. Anchored Inflation Expectations
   American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2023, 15, (1), 1-47 View citations (29)
   See also Working Paper Anchored inflation expectations, CAMA Working Papers (2020) View citations (9) (2020)
5. Challenges to Disinflation: The Brazilian Experience
   Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2023, 54, (1 (Spring)), 217-241 View citations (1)
6. Macroeconomic Effects of Credit Deepening in Latin America
   Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2023, 55, (7), 1817-1855
   See also Working Paper Macroeconomic Effects of Credit Deepening in Latin America, Working Papers Central Bank of Chile (2019) View citations (4) (2019)
7. Multi-Product Pricing: Theory and Evidence from Large Retailers
   The Economic Journal, 2023, 133, (651), 905-927 View citations (1)
8. Persistent Monetary Non-neutrality in an Estimated Menu Cost Model with Partially Costly Information
   American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2023, 15, (2), 466-505

2021

9. Price selection
   Journal of Monetary Economics, 2021, 122, (C), 56-75
   See also Working Paper Price Selection, Staff Working Papers (2018) View citations (4) (2018)
10. Sectoral Price Facts in a Sticky-Price Model
    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2021, 13, (1), 216-56 View citations (18)
    See also Working Paper Sectoral Price Facts in a Sticky-Price Model, Departmental Working Papers (2011) View citations (27) (2011)
11. Taylor rule estimation by OLS
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2021, 124, (C), 140-154 View citations (35)
    See also Working Paper Taylor Rule Estimation by OLS, Working Paper Series (2021) View citations (30) (2021)

2020

12. The Cross-Sectional Distribution of Price Stickiness Implied by Aggregate Data
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2020, 102, (1), 162-179 View citations (5)

2018

13. Approximating multisector New Keynesian models
    Economics Letters, 2018, 163, (C), 193-196 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper Approximating Multisector New Keynesian Models, Working Paper Series (2017) View citations (1) (2017)
14. ArCo: An artificial counterfactual approach for high-dimensional panel time-series data
    Journal of Econometrics, 2018, 207, (2), 352-380 View citations (35)
    See also Working Paper Arco: an artificial counterfactual approach for high-dimensional panel time-series data, Textos para discussão (2017) View citations (5) (2017)

2017

15. Demographic Transition and Low U.S. Interest Rates
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017 View citations (3)
16. Heterogeneous Sticky-Information Economies
    Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 2017, 37, (2)

2016

17. Demographics and real interest rates: Inspecting the mechanism
    European Economic Review, 2016, 88, (C), 208-226 View citations (233)
    See also Working Paper Demographics and Real Interest Rates: Inspecting the Mechanism, Textos para discussão (2016) View citations (261) (2016)
18. Factor Specificity and Real Rigidities
    Review of Economic Dynamics, 2016, 22, 208-222 View citations (12)
    See also Software Item Code and data files for "Factor Specificity and Real Rigidities", Computer Codes (2016) (2016)
    Working Paper Factor Specificity and Real Rigidities, Textos para discussão (2015) (2015)
    Working Paper Online Appendix to "Factor Specificity and Real Rigidities, Online Appendices (2016) View citations (10) (2016)
19. Fed communication and the zero lower bound
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016 View citations (1)

2015

20. Selection and monetary non-neutrality in time-dependent pricing models
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2015, 76, (C), 141-156 View citations (22)
    See also Working Paper Selection and Monetary Non-Neutrality in Time-Dependent Pricing Models, Textos para discussão (2014) View citations (15) (2014)
21. What lf Brazil Hadn't Floated the Real in 1999?
    Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 2015, 35, (2)
    See also Working Paper What if Brazil Hadn't Floated the Real in 1999?, Textos para discussão (2015) (2015)

2014

22. Do people understand monetary policy?
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2014, 66, (C), 108-123 View citations (150)
    See also Working Paper Do People Understand Monetary Policy?, Textos para discussão (2013) View citations (2) (2013)
23. Household expectations and monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014

2013

24. Just Words? A Quantitative Analysis of the Communication of the Central Bank of Brazil
    Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, 2013, 67, (4) View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper Just Words? A Quantitative Analysis of the Communication of the Central Bank of Brazil, Textos para discussão (2013) View citations (14) (2013)

2012

25. Iniciativas de política durante la recesión global. ¿Cuáles eran las expectativas de los analistas?
    Boletín, 2012, LVIII, (2), 78-93
26. Policy initiatives in the global recession: what did forecasters expect?
    Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 2012, 18, (Feb)

2011

27. Aggregation and the PPP Puzzle in a Sticky-Price Model
    American Economic Review, 2011, 101, (6), 2391-2424 View citations (77)
    See also Working Paper Aggregation and the PPP puzzle in a sticky-price model, Working Paper Series (2010) View citations (25) (2010)
28. The persistent effects of a false news shock
    Journal of Empirical Finance, 2011, 18, (4), 597-615 View citations (25)
    See also Working Paper The persistent effects of a false news shock, Staff Reports (2009) View citations (1) (2009)

2010

29. Imperfectly Credible Disinflation under Endogenous Time-Dependent Pricing
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2010, 42, (5), 799-831 View citations (11)
    Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2010, 42, (5), 799-831 (2010) View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper Imperfectly credible disinflation under endogenous time-dependent pricing, Staff Reports (2008) View citations (1) (2008)
30. Loss aversion, asymmetric market comovements, and the home bias
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2010, 29, (7), 1303-1320 View citations (14)
    See also Working Paper Loss aversion, asymmetric market comovements, and the home bias, Staff Reports (2010) View citations (18) (2010)

2006

31. Heterogeneity in Price Stickiness and the Real Effects of Monetary Shocks
    The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2006, 6, (1), 58 View citations (252)

2004

32. Endogenous Time-Dependent Rules and Inflation Inertia
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2004, 36, (6), 1015-41 View citations (65)
    See also Working Paper Endogenous Time-Dependent Rules and Inflation Inertia, Macroeconomics (2005) View citations (6) (2005)

Chapters

2015

1. Macroeconomic Effects of the Demographic Transition in Brazil
   Palgrave Macmillan

Software Items

2016

1. Code and data files for "Factor Specificity and Real Rigidities"
   Computer Codes, Review of Economic Dynamics
   See also Journal Article Factor Specificity and Real Rigidities, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2016) View citations (12) (2016)