Details about Refet S. Gürkaynak

Access statistics for papers by Refet S. Gürkaynak.

Last updated 2023-01-22. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pgu93

Working Papers

2022

1. Exchange Rate and Inflation under Weak Monetary Policy: Turkey Verifies Theory
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
   Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2022) View citations (1)
   CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2022) View citations (1)
2. Output Concerns and Precautionary Savings in Emerging Markets' Debt and Reserve Accumulation
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

2020

3. Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (5)
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (1)
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2020) View citations (5)
   CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2020) View citations (2)
   See also Chapter (2020)
   Journal Article in Journal of International Economics (2021)

2019

4. Measuring Euro Area Monetary Policy
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (217)
   Also in Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2019) View citations (215)
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2019) View citations (214)
   CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2019) View citations (209)
   See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2019)
5. Stock Market's Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission: The Cash Flow Effect
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (9)
   Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2019) View citations (6)
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2019) View citations (12)
   See also Journal Article in Journal of Finance (2022)

2018

6. Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially-Measured News Surprises
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (15)
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2018) View citations (16)
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2018) View citations (15)
   See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2020)

2015

7. Forward Guidance and Asset Prices
   IMES Discussion Paper Series, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan View citations (11)
8. Is Optimal Monetary Policy Always Optimal?
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (11)
   Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2015) View citations (11)
   Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2015) View citations (10)
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2015) View citations (11)
   See also Journal Article in International Journal of Central Banking (2015)
9. Monetary Policy in Turkey after Central Bank Independence
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (8)
   Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2015) View citations (7)
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2015) View citations (10)
   See also Journal Article in Iktisat Isletme ve Finans (2015)

2013

10. Do DSGE Models Forecast More Accurately Out-of-Sample than VAR Models?
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (40)
11. Identification and Inference Using Event Studies
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (55)
    See also Journal Article in Manchester School (2013)

2011

12. How useful are estimated DSGE model forecasts?
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (14)
13. Turkiye Icin Getiri Egrileri Kullanilarak Enflasyon Telafisi Tahmin Edilmesi
    Working Papers, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
14. Turkiye'de Endeksli Bonolar Kullanilarak Enflasyon Telafisi Olculmesi
    CBT Research Notes in Economics, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey View citations (1)

2010

15. How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (110)
    See also Journal Article in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2010)
16. Macroeconomics and the Term Structure
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Literature (2012)
17. TCMB Faiz Kararlarinin Piyasa Faizleri Ve Hisse Senedi Piyasalari Uzerine Etkisi
    CBT Research Notes in Economics, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey View citations (3)
18. Turkiye�de Piyasa Gostergelerinden Para Politikasi Beklentilerinin Olculmesi
    Working Papers, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey View citations (1)

2009

19. CONVERGENCE AND ANCHORING OF YIELD CURVES IN THE EURO AREA
    2009 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (1)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2007) View citations (12)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2007) View citations (33)
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2007) View citations (22)

2008

20. The TIPS yield curve and inflation compensation
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (39)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (2010)
21. Turkiye�de Para Politikasinin Aktarimi:Para Politikasinin Mali Piyasalara Etkisi
    Working Papers, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey View citations (4)

2006

22. Devlet Ic Borclanma Senetleri Icin Getiri Egrisi Tahmini
    Working Papers, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article in Iktisat Isletme ve Finans (2007)
23. Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Long-Term Bond Yields in the US, UK and Sweden
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (58)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2006) View citations (75)
24. Inflation Targeting and the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in The Western Hemisphere
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (25)
    See also Chapter (2007)
    Journal Article in Economic Review (2007)
25. Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty and Risk
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (8)
    Also in IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2005) View citations (31)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2005) View citations (11)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2006) View citations (14)
    See also Chapter (2005)
26. Market-based measures of monetary policy expectations
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (33)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2002) View citations (51)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (2007)
27. The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (20)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2007)

2005

28. Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (913)
    Also in Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany (2005) View citations (885)
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2004) View citations (65)
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics (2005) View citations (826)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Central Banking (2005)
29. Econometric Tests of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock
    Finance, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (15)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2005) View citations (62)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Surveys (2008)
30. Using federal funds futures contracts for monetary policy analysis
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (30)

2003

31. The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (68)
    See also Journal Article in Proceedings (2003)

2001

32. Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer and Weil Seriously
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (298)
    See also Chapter (2002)

Journal Articles

2022

1. Stock Market's Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission: The Cash Flow Effect
   Journal of Finance, 2022, 77, (4), 2375-2421 View citations (2)
   See also Working Paper (2019)

2021

2. Monetary policy surprises and exchange rate behavior
   Journal of International Economics, 2021, 130, (C) View citations (11)
   See also Chapter (2020)
   Working Paper (2020)

2020

3. Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially Measured News Surprises
   American Economic Review, 2020, 110, (12), 3871-3912 View citations (10)
   See also Working Paper (2018)

2019

4. Measuring euro area monetary policy
   Journal of Monetary Economics, 2019, 108, (C), 162-179 View citations (211)
   See also Working Paper (2019)

2015

5. Is Optimal Monetary Policy Always Optimal?
   International Journal of Central Banking, 2015, 11, (4), 353-382 View citations (11)
   See also Working Paper (2015)
6. Monetary Policy in Turkey after Central Bank Independence
   Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 2015, 30, (356), 09-38 View citations (12)
   See also Working Paper (2015)

2013

7. Identification and Inference Using Event Studies
   Manchester School, 2013, 81, 48-65 View citations (56)
   See also Working Paper (2013)

2012

8. Cari açık, bütçe dengesi, finansal istikrar ve para politikası: Heyecanlı bir dönemin izi
   Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 2012, 27, (315), 93-119 View citations (14)
9. Macroeconomics and the Term Structure
   Journal of Economic Literature, 2012, 50, (2), 331-67 View citations (162)
   See also Working Paper (2010)

2010

10. Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the U.S., UK, and Sweden
    Journal of the European Economic Association, 2010, 8, (6), 1208-1242 View citations (219)
11. How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2010, 41, (2 (Fall)), 209-259 View citations (124)
    See also Working Paper (2010)
12. The TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation
    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2010, 2, (1), 70-92 View citations (116)
    See also Working Paper (2008)
13. Türkiye’de piyasa göstergelerinden para politikası beklentilerinin ölçülmesi
    Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 2010, 25, (295), 21-45 View citations (4)

2009

14. Türkiye'de para politikasının aktarımı: Para politikasının mali piyasalara etkisi
    Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 2009, 24, (278), 9-24 View citations (14)

2008

15. ECONOMETRIC TESTS OF ASSET PRICE BUBBLES: TAKING STOCK
    Journal of Economic Surveys, 2008, 22, (1), 166-186 View citations (85)
    See also Working Paper (2005)

2007

16. Devlet iç borçlanma senetleri için getiri eğrisi tahmini
    Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 2007, 22, (252), 5-25 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper (2006)
17. Inflation targeting and the anchoring of inflation expectations in the western hemisphere
    Economic Review, 2007, 25-47 View citations (26)
    Also in Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), 2006, 9, (3), 19-52 (2006) View citations (22)
    See also Chapter (2007)
    Working Paper (2006)
18. International Portfolios with Supply, Demand, and Redistributive Shocks [with Comments]
    NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2007, 2007, (1), 231 - 281 View citations (1)
19. Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2007, 25, 201-212 View citations (170)
    See also Working Paper (2006)
20. The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, 54, (8), 2291-2304 View citations (219)
    See also Working Paper (2006)

2005

21. Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2005, 1, (1) View citations (919)
    See also Working Paper (2005)
22. Dual Inflation and the Real Exchange Rate in New Open Economy Macroeconomics [with Comments]
    NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2005, 2005, (1), 315 - 355
23. Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk [with Comments]
    NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2005, 2005, (1), 11 - 64
24. The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models
    American Economic Review, 2005, 95, (1), 425-436 View citations (492)

2003

25. The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models
    Proceedings, 2003, (Mar) View citations (88)
    See also Working Paper (2003)

Edited books

2015

1. Taming Capital Flows: Capital Account Management in an Era of Globalization
   International Economic Association Series, Palgrave Macmillan View citations (6)

Chapters

2020

1. Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior
   A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2020, 2020 View citations (7)
   See also Journal Article in Journal of International Economics (2021)
   Working Paper (2020)

2015

2. Appropriate Policy Tools to Manage Capital Flow Externalities
   Palgrave Macmillan
3. Introduction
   Palgrave Macmillan

2009

4. Comment on "International Portfolios with Supply, Demand and Redistributive Shocks"
   A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, 2009, pp 277-281

2007

5. Inflation Targeting and the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Western Hemisphere
   Chapter 11 in Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, 2007, vol. 11, pp 415-465 View citations (66)
   See also Journal Article in Economic Review (2007)
   Working Paper (2006)

2005

6. Comment on "Dual Inflation and the Real Exchange Rate in New Open Economy Macroeconomics"
   A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, 2005, pp 352-355
7. Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk
   A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, 2005, pp 11-50 View citations (16)
   See also Working Paper (2006)

2002

8. Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer, and Weil Seriously
   A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, 2002, pp 11-72 View citations (30)
   See also Working Paper (2001)