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Details about Refet S. Gürkaynak

Homepage:http://refet.bilkent.edu.tr
Postal address:Bilkent University Department of Economics 06800 Bilkent Ankara Turkey
Workplace:Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), (more information at EDIRC)
İktisat Bölümü (Department of Economics), Bilkent Üniversitesi (Bilkent University), (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Refet S. Gürkaynak.

Last updated 2024-05-24. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pgu93


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Working Papers

2024

  1. Macro and micro of external finance premium and monetary policy transmission
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank Downloads

2022

  1. Exchange Rate and Inflation under Weak Monetary Policy: Turkey Verifies Theory
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads
    Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2022) Downloads View citations (4)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2022) Downloads View citations (4)
  2. Output Concerns and Precautionary Savings in Emerging Markets' Debt and Reserve Accumulation
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads

2020

  1. Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (6)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) Downloads View citations (2)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2020) Downloads View citations (3)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2020) Downloads View citations (6)

    See also Journal Article Monetary policy surprises and exchange rate behavior, Journal of International Economics, Elsevier (2021) Downloads View citations (17) (2021)
    Chapter Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020) View citations (8) (2020)

2019

  1. Measuring Euro Area Monetary Policy
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo Downloads View citations (329)
    Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2019) Downloads View citations (322)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2019) Downloads View citations (327)
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2019) Downloads View citations (327)

    See also Journal Article Measuring euro area monetary policy, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2019) Downloads View citations (264) (2019)
  2. Stock Market's Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission: The Cash Flow Effect
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (13)
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2019) Downloads View citations (13)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2019) Downloads View citations (7)

    See also Journal Article Stock Market's Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission: The Cash Flow Effect, Journal of Finance, American Finance Association (2022) Downloads View citations (14) (2022)

2018

  1. Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially-Measured News Surprises
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (15)
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2018) Downloads View citations (15)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2018) Downloads View citations (16)

    See also Journal Article Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially Measured News Surprises, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2020) Downloads View citations (20) (2020)

2015

  1. Forward Guidance and Asset Prices
    IMES Discussion Paper Series, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan Downloads View citations (11)
  2. Is Optimal Monetary Policy Always Optimal?
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (11)
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2015) Downloads View citations (11)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2015) Downloads View citations (11)
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2015) Downloads View citations (10)

    See also Journal Article Is Optimal Monetary Policy Always Optimal?, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2015) Downloads View citations (11) (2015)
  3. Monetary Policy in Turkey after Central Bank Independence
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo Downloads View citations (11)
    Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2015) Downloads View citations (8)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2015) Downloads View citations (9)

    See also Journal Article Monetary Policy in Turkey after Central Bank Independence, Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik (2015) View citations (14) (2015)

2014

  1. Inflation Experience and Inflation Expectations: Spatial Evidence
    2014 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics Downloads

2013

  1. Do DSGE Models Forecast More Accurately Out-of-Sample than VAR Models?
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (42)
  2. Identification and Inference Using Event Studies
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (66)
    See also Journal Article Identification and Inference Using Event Studies, Manchester School, University of Manchester (2013) Downloads View citations (67) (2013)

2011

  1. How useful are estimated DSGE model forecasts?
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (14)
  2. Turkiye Icin Getiri Egrileri Kullanilarak Enflasyon Telafisi Tahmin Edilmesi
    Working Papers, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Downloads
  3. Turkiye'de Endeksli Bonolar Kullanilarak Enflasyon Telafisi Olculmesi
    CBT Research Notes in Economics, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Downloads View citations (1)

2010

  1. How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (116)
    See also Journal Article How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution (2010) Downloads View citations (130) (2010)
  2. Macroeconomics and the Term Structure
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article Macroeconomics and the Term Structure, Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association (2012) Downloads View citations (170) (2012)
  3. TCMB Faiz Kararlarinin Piyasa Faizleri Ve Hisse Senedi Piyasalari Uzerine Etkisi
    CBT Research Notes in Economics, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Downloads View citations (3)
  4. Turkiye�de Piyasa Gostergelerinden Para Politikasi Beklentilerinin Olculmesi
    Working Papers, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Downloads View citations (1)

2009

  1. CONVERGENCE AND ANCHORING OF YIELD CURVES IN THE EURO AREA
    2009 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics Downloads View citations (1)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2007) Downloads View citations (33)
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2007) Downloads View citations (22)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2007) Downloads View citations (12)

    See also Journal Article Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in the Euro Area, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2011) Downloads View citations (77) (2011)

2008

  1. The TIPS yield curve and inflation compensation
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (39)
    See also Journal Article The TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association (2010) Downloads View citations (135) (2010)
  2. Turkiye�de Para Politikasinin Aktarimi:Para Politikasinin Mali Piyasalara Etkisi
    Working Papers, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Downloads View citations (4)

2006

  1. Devlet Ic Borclanma Senetleri Icin Getiri Egrisi Tahmini
    Working Papers, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Downloads View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Devlet iç borçlanma senetleri için getiri eğrisi tahmini, Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik (2007) View citations (1) (2007)
  2. Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Long-Term Bond Yields in the US, UK and Sweden
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (60)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2006) Downloads View citations (124)
  3. Inflation Targeting and the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in The Western Hemisphere
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile Downloads View citations (25)
    See also Journal Article Inflation targeting and the anchoring of inflation expectations in the western hemisphere, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2007) Downloads View citations (26) (2007)
    Chapter Inflation Targeting and the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Western Hemisphere, Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, Central Bank of Chile (2007) Downloads View citations (73) (2007)
  4. Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty and Risk
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (9)
    Also in IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2005) Downloads View citations (33)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2005) Downloads View citations (11)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2006) Downloads View citations (15)

    See also Chapter Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2005) Downloads View citations (20) (2005)
  5. Market-based measures of monetary policy expectations
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (33)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2002) Downloads View citations (51)

    See also Journal Article Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association (2007) Downloads View citations (179) (2007)
  6. The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (21)
    See also Journal Article The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2007) Downloads View citations (248) (2007)

2005

  1. Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany Downloads View citations (1055)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2004) Downloads View citations (72)
    Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany (2005) Downloads View citations (1027)
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics (2005) View citations (968)

    See also Journal Article Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2005) Downloads View citations (1062) (2005)
  2. Econometric Tests of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock
    Finance, University Library of Munich, Germany Downloads View citations (15)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2005) Downloads View citations (62)

    See also Journal Article ECONOMETRIC TESTS OF ASSET PRICE BUBBLES: TAKING STOCK, Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell (2008) Downloads View citations (101) (2008)
  3. Using federal funds futures contracts for monetary policy analysis
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (33)

2003

  1. The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (68)
    See also Journal Article The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models, Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2003) Downloads View citations (88) (2003)

2001

  1. Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer and Weil Seriously
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (303)
    See also Chapter Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer, and Weil Seriously, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2002) Downloads View citations (31) (2002)

Journal Articles

2022

  1. Stock Market's Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission: The Cash Flow Effect
    Journal of Finance, 2022, 77, (4), 2375-2421 Downloads View citations (14)
    See also Working Paper Stock Market's Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission: The Cash Flow Effect, CEPR Discussion Papers (2019) Downloads View citations (13) (2019)

2021

  1. Monetary policy surprises and exchange rate behavior
    Journal of International Economics, 2021, 130, (C) Downloads View citations (17)
    See also Working Paper Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior, NBER Working Papers (2020) Downloads View citations (6) (2020)
    Chapter Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior, NBER Chapters, 2020 (2020) View citations (8) (2020)

2020

  1. Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially Measured News Surprises
    American Economic Review, 2020, 110, (12), 3871-3912 Downloads View citations (20)
    See also Working Paper Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially-Measured News Surprises, NBER Working Papers (2018) Downloads View citations (15) (2018)

2019

  1. Measuring euro area monetary policy
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2019, 108, (C), 162-179 Downloads View citations (264)
    See also Working Paper Measuring Euro Area Monetary Policy, CESifo Working Paper Series (2019) Downloads View citations (329) (2019)

2015

  1. Is Optimal Monetary Policy Always Optimal?
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2015, 11, (4), 353-382 Downloads View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper Is Optimal Monetary Policy Always Optimal?, CEPR Discussion Papers (2015) Downloads View citations (11) (2015)
  2. Monetary Policy in Turkey after Central Bank Independence
    Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 2015, 30, (356), 09-38 View citations (14)
    See also Working Paper Monetary Policy in Turkey after Central Bank Independence, CESifo Working Paper Series (2015) Downloads View citations (11) (2015)

2013

  1. Identification and Inference Using Event Studies
    Manchester School, 2013, 81, 48-65 Downloads View citations (67)
    See also Working Paper Identification and Inference Using Event Studies, CEPR Discussion Papers (2013) Downloads View citations (66) (2013)

2012

  1. Cari açık, bütçe dengesi, finansal istikrar ve para politikası: Heyecanlı bir dönemin izi
    Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 2012, 27, (315), 93-119 View citations (14)
  2. Macroeconomics and the Term Structure
    Journal of Economic Literature, 2012, 50, (2), 331-67 Downloads View citations (170)
    See also Working Paper Macroeconomics and the Term Structure, CEPR Discussion Papers (2010) Downloads View citations (11) (2010)

2011

  1. Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in the Euro Area
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2011, 93, (1), 350-364 Downloads View citations (77)
    See also Working Paper CONVERGENCE AND ANCHORING OF YIELD CURVES IN THE EURO AREA, 2009 Meeting Papers (2009) Downloads View citations (1) (2009)

2010

  1. Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the U.S., UK, and Sweden
    Journal of the European Economic Association, 2010, 8, (6), 1208-1242 Downloads View citations (247)
  2. How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2010, 41, (2 (Fall)), 209-259 Downloads View citations (130)
    See also Working Paper How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?, CEPR Discussion Papers (2010) Downloads View citations (116) (2010)
  3. The TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation
    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2010, 2, (1), 70-92 Downloads View citations (135)
    See also Working Paper The TIPS yield curve and inflation compensation, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2008) Downloads View citations (39) (2008)
  4. Türkiye’de piyasa göstergelerinden para politikası beklentilerinin ölçülmesi
    Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 2010, 25, (295), 21-45 View citations (4)

2009

  1. Türkiye'de para politikasının aktarımı: Para politikasının mali piyasalara etkisi
    Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 2009, 24, (278), 9-24 View citations (14)

2008

  1. ECONOMETRIC TESTS OF ASSET PRICE BUBBLES: TAKING STOCK
    Journal of Economic Surveys, 2008, 22, (1), 166-186 Downloads View citations (101)
    See also Working Paper Econometric Tests of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock, Finance (2005) Downloads View citations (15) (2005)

2007

  1. Devlet iç borçlanma senetleri için getiri eğrisi tahmini
    Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 2007, 22, (252), 5-25 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper Devlet Ic Borclanma Senetleri Icin Getiri Egrisi Tahmini, Working Papers (2006) Downloads View citations (5) (2006)
  2. Inflation targeting and the anchoring of inflation expectations in the western hemisphere
    Economic Review, 2007, 25-47 Downloads View citations (26)
    Also in Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), 2006, 9, (3), 19-52 (2006) Downloads View citations (22)

    See also Chapter Inflation Targeting and the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Western Hemisphere, Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, 2007, 11, 415-465 (2007) Downloads View citations (73) (2007)
    Working Paper Inflation Targeting and the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in The Western Hemisphere, Working Papers Central Bank of Chile (2006) Downloads View citations (25) (2006)
  3. International Portfolios with Supply, Demand, and Redistributive Shocks [with Comments]
    NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2007, 2007, (1), 231 - 281 Downloads View citations (3)
  4. Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2007, 25, 201-212 Downloads View citations (179)
    See also Working Paper Market-based measures of monetary policy expectations, Working Paper Series (2006) Downloads View citations (33) (2006)
  5. The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, 54, (8), 2291-2304 Downloads View citations (248)
    See also Working Paper The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2006) Downloads View citations (21) (2006)

2005

  1. Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2005, 1, (1) Downloads View citations (1062)
    See also Working Paper Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements, MPRA Paper (2005) Downloads View citations (1055) (2005)
  2. Dual Inflation and the Real Exchange Rate in New Open Economy Macroeconomics [with Comments]
    NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2005, 2005, (1), 315 - 355 Downloads
  3. Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk [with Comments]
    NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2005, 2005, (1), 11 - 64 Downloads View citations (1)
  4. The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models
    American Economic Review, 2005, 95, (1), 425-436 Downloads View citations (542)

2003

  1. The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models
    Proceedings, 2003, (Mar) Downloads View citations (88)
    See also Working Paper The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2003) Downloads View citations (68) (2003)

Edited books

2023

  1. Research Handbook of Financial Markets
    Books, Edward Elgar Publishing Downloads

2015

  1. Taming Capital Flows: Capital Account Management in an Era of Globalization
    International Economic Association Series, Palgrave Macmillan View citations (6)

Chapters

2023

  1. Banks
    Chapter 6 in Research Handbook of Financial Markets, 2023, pp 126-146 Downloads
  2. Futures and options
    Chapter 22 in Research Handbook of Financial Markets, 2023, pp 490-508 Downloads

2020

  1. Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior
    A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2020, 2020 View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article Monetary policy surprises and exchange rate behavior, Elsevier (2021) Downloads View citations (17) (2021)
    Working Paper Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020) Downloads View citations (6) (2020)

2015

  1. Appropriate Policy Tools to Manage Capital Flow Externalities
    Palgrave Macmillan
  2. Introduction
    Palgrave Macmillan

2013

  1. Do DSGE Models Forecast More Accurately Out-Of-Sample than VAR Models?☆The views expressed in this article are those of the authors
    A chapter in VAR Models in Macroeconomics – New Developments and Applications: Essays in Honor of Christopher A. Sims, 2013, vol. 32, pp 27-79 Downloads

2009

  1. Comment on "International Portfolios with Supply, Demand and Redistributive Shocks"
    A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, 2009, pp 277-281 Downloads

2007

  1. Inflation Targeting and the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Western Hemisphere
    Chapter 11 in Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, 2007, vol. 11, pp 415-465 Downloads View citations (73)
    See also Journal Article Inflation targeting and the anchoring of inflation expectations in the western hemisphere, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2007) Downloads View citations (26) (2007)
    Working Paper Inflation Targeting and the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in The Western Hemisphere, Central Bank of Chile (2006) Downloads View citations (25) (2006)

2005

  1. Comment on "Dual Inflation and the Real Exchange Rate in New Open Economy Macroeconomics"
    A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, 2005, pp 352-355 Downloads
  2. Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk
    A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, 2005, pp 11-50 Downloads View citations (20)
    See also Working Paper Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty and Risk, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2006) Downloads View citations (9) (2006)

2002

  1. Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer, and Weil Seriously
    A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, 2002, pp 11-72 Downloads View citations (31)
    See also Working Paper Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer and Weil Seriously, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2001) Downloads View citations (303) (2001)
 
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