Details about Christian Matthes

Access statistics for papers by Christian Matthes.

Last updated 2025-05-30. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pma1006

Working Papers

2025

1. Large Structural VARs with Multiple Sign and Ranking Restrictions
   Papers, arXiv.org

2024

2. Common Trends and Country Specific Heterogeneities in Long-Run World Energy Consumption
   Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School
3. General Seemingly Unrelated Local Projections
   Papers, arXiv.org View citations (2)
4. Monetary Policy Shocks: Data or Methods?
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (2)
5. Monetary Policy across Inflation Regimes
   Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (6)
6. The Influence of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on the Shape of the Yield Curve
   Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School
   Also in CAEPR Working Papers, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington (2023)
   CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University (2023)

2023

7. Averaging Impulse Responses Using Prediction Pools
   Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
   See also Journal Article Averaging impulse responses using prediction pools, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2024) View citations (4) (2024)

2022

8. Inflation Measured Every Day Keeps Adverse Responses Away: Temporal Aggregation and Monetary Policy Transmission
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (2)
9. Online Appendix to "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information"
   Online Appendices, Review of Economic Dynamics View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2023) View citations (2) (2023)

2021

10. Economic theories and macroeconomic reality
    Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Economic theories and macroeconomic reality, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2022) View citations (7) (2022)

2020

11. How To Go Viral: A COVID-19 Model with Endogenously Time-Varying Parameters
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article How to go viral: A COVID-19 model with endogenously time-varying parameters, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2023) View citations (3) (2023)
12. Indeterminacy and imperfect information
    Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank View citations (4)
    Also in Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2019) View citations (2)
    2017 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2017)
    See also Journal Article Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2023) View citations (2) (2023)
13. Learning about Regime Change
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article LEARNING ABOUT REGIME CHANGE, International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association (2022) (2022)
14. Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It's in the Sign
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (2)
    Also in Working Papers, Barcelona School of Economics (2020) View citations (4)
    Economics Working Papers, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra (2020) View citations (4)
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2017) View citations (12)
    Economics Working Papers, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra (2016) View citations (7)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2016) View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It’s in the Sign, The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd (2022) View citations (35) (2022)

2019

15. Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risk
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (11)
    Also in Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2019) View citations (16)
    See also Journal Article Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risk, The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (2025) View citations (1) (2025)
16. Assessing U.S. Aggregate Fluctuations Across Time and Frequencies
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (5)
    Also in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland (2019) View citations (4)
17. Dealing with misspecification in structural macroeconometric models
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
    See also Journal Article Dealing with misspecification in structural macroeconometric models, Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society (2021) View citations (2) (2021)
18. The Demand Origins of Business Cycles
    2019 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (1)
19. What Do Sectoral Dynamics Tell Us About the Origins of Business Cycles?
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (5)

2018

20. A Composite Likelihood Approach for Dynamic Structural Models
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (1)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2018) View citations (2)
    Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School (2018) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article A Composite Likelihood Approach for Dynamic Structural Models, The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (2021) View citations (7) (2021)
21. Monetary Policy across Space and Time
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (2)
    See also Chapter Monetary Policy Across Space and Time, Advances in Econometrics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited (2022) View citations (1) (2022)
    Journal Article Monetary Policy across Space and Time, Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2019) View citations (1) (2019)

2017

22. Two-sided Learning and Short-Run Dynamics in a New Keynesian Model of the Economy
    Working Papers, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article Two-sided learning and short-run dynamics in a New Keynesian model of the economy, Economics Letters, Elsevier (2017) (2017)

2016

23. Approximating time varying structural models with time invariant structures
    Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School View citations (5)
    Also in Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2015) View citations (10)
    Working papers, Banque de France (2015) View citations (16)
    2016 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2016) View citations (5)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2015) View citations (17)
24. Assessing the Non-Linear Effects of Credit Market Shocks
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (3)
25. Choosing Prior Hyperparameters
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (14)
26. Gaussian Mixture Approximations of Impulse Responses and The Non-Linear Effects of Monetary Shocks
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (25)
    Also in Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2014) View citations (6)
27. Theory Ahead of Measurement? Assessing the Nonlinear Effects of Financial Market Disruptions
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (4)

2015

28. Measurement Errors and Monetary Policy: Then and Now
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Measurement errors and monetary policy: Then and now, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2017) View citations (8) (2017)
29. Measuring the Non-Linear Effects of Monetary Policy
    2015 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (13)
30. Stimulus versus Austerity: The Asymmetric Government Spending Multiplier
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (12)
31. Tales of Transition Paths: Policy Uncertainty and Random Walks
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
    Also in Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank (2015)
32. Two-sided Learning in New Keynesian Models: Dynamics, (Lack of) Convergence and the Value of Information
    Working Papers, Barcelona School of Economics
    Also in UFAE and IAE Working Papers, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC) (2012)
    Dynare Working Papers, CEPREMAP (2012)
    Economics Working Papers, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra (2012)

2014

33. Drifts, Volatilities and Impulse Responses Over the Last Century
    VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association View citations (3)
    Also in Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2014)
34. Dynamics of Monetary-Fiscal Interaction under Learning
    VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association View citations (1)
35. Indeterminacy and Learning: An Analysis of Monetary Policy in the Great Inflation
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (6)
    Also in CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University (2014) View citations (11)
    2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2013)
    See also Journal Article Indeterminacy and learning: An analysis of monetary policy in the Great Inflation, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2016) View citations (32) (2016)
36. Optimized Taylor Rules for Disinflation When Agents are Learning
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Optimized Taylor rules for disinflation when agents are learning, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2015) View citations (26) (2015)

2013

37. Choosing the variables to estimate singular DSGE models
    Working papers, Banque de France View citations (16)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2013) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article CHOOSING THE VARIABLES TO ESTIMATE SINGULAR DSGE MODELS, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2014) View citations (27) (2014)
38. Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (11)
    Also in Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank (2013) View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2015) View citations (16) (2015)

2011

39. A Bayesian approach to optimal monetary policy with parameter and model uncertainty
    Bank of England working papers, Bank of England View citations (33)
    See also Journal Article A Bayesian approach to optimal monetary policy with parameter and model uncertainty, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2011) View citations (29) (2011)
40. Extreme Weather and the Macroeconomy
    Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond View citations (2)
41. Optimal Disinflation Under Learning
    2011 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (10)
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2011) View citations (33)

Journal Articles

2025

1. Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risk
   The Economic Journal, 2025, 135, (665), 264-284 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risk, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2019) View citations (11) (2019)
2. Severe Weather and the Macroeconomy
   American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2025, 17, (2), 315-41 View citations (1)

2024

3. Averaging impulse responses using prediction pools
   Journal of Monetary Economics, 2024, 146, (C) View citations (4)
   See also Working Paper Averaging Impulse Responses Using Prediction Pools, Working Paper (2023) (2023)

2023

4. How to go viral: A COVID-19 model with endogenously time-varying parameters
   Journal of Econometrics, 2023, 232, (1), 70-86 View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper How To Go Viral: A COVID-19 Model with Endogenously Time-Varying Parameters, Working Paper (2020) View citations (3) (2020)
5. Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information
   Review of Economic Dynamics, 2023, 49, 37-57 View citations (2)
   See also Working Paper Indeterminacy and imperfect information, Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (4) (2020)
   Working Paper Online Appendix to "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information", Online Appendices (2022) View citations (1) (2022)
   Software Item Code and data files for "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information", Computer Codes (2022) (2022)
6. The Stars Our Destination: An Update for Our R* Model
   Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2023, 23, (32) View citations (2)

2022

7. Are the Effects of Financial Market Disruptions Big or Small?
   The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2022, 104, (3), 557-570 View citations (14)
8. Economic theories and macroeconomic reality
   Journal of Monetary Economics, 2022, 126, (C), 105-117 View citations (7)
   See also Working Paper Economic theories and macroeconomic reality, Discussion Papers (2021) View citations (2) (2021)
9. Forecasting the COVID-19 epidemic: the case of New Zealand
   New Zealand Economic Papers, 2022, 56, (1), 9-16
10. LEARNING ABOUT REGIME CHANGE
    International Economic Review, 2022, 63, (4), 1829-1859
    See also Working Paper Learning about Regime Change, Working Paper Series (2020) View citations (4) (2020)
11. Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It’s in the Sign
    The Review of Economic Studies, 2022, 89, (1), 87-117 View citations (35)
    See also Working Paper Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It's in the Sign, Working Paper Series (2020) View citations (2) (2020)

2021

12. A Composite Likelihood Approach for Dynamic Structural Models
    The Economic Journal, 2021, 131, (638), 2447-2477 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper A Composite Likelihood Approach for Dynamic Structural Models, Working Paper (2018) View citations (1) (2018)
13. Can Government Spending Help to Escape Recessions?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2021, 2021, (02), 01-05
14. Dealing with misspecification in structural macroeconometric models
    Quantitative Economics, 2021, 12, (2), 313-350 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper Dealing with misspecification in structural macroeconometric models, CEPR Discussion Papers (2019) (2019)
15. How Much Does Household Consumption Impact Business Cycles?
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2021, 21, (25) View citations (1)

2020

16. COVID-19 over Time and across States: Predictions from a Statistical Model
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2020, 20, (10)
17. Choosing Prior Hyperparameters: With Applications to Time-Varying Parameter Models
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2020, 38, (1), 124-136 View citations (18)
18. DETECTING AND ANALYZING THE EFFECTS OF TIME‐VARYING PARAMETERS IN DSGE MODELS
    International Economic Review, 2020, 61, (1), 105-125 View citations (12)
19. The Highs and Lows of Productivity Growth
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2020, 2020, (21), 5

2019

20. How Likely Is the Zero Lower Bound?
    Economic Quarterly, 2019, (1Q), 41-54 View citations (2)
21. Monetary Policy across Space and Time
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2019, (August) View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper Monetary Policy across Space and Time, Working Paper (2018) View citations (2) (2018)
    Chapter Monetary Policy Across Space and Time, Advances in Econometrics, 2022, 44B, 37-64 (2022) View citations (1) (2022)
22. Moving Macroeconomic Analysis beyond Business Cycles
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2019, (April), 1-8

2018

23. Functional Approximation of Impulse Responses
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2018, 99, (C), 41-55 View citations (43)
24. How Likely Is a Return to the Zero Lower Bound?
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2018, (September) View citations (1)
25. The Financial Crisis at 10: Will We Ever Recover?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2018 View citations (11)

2017

26. Are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Asymmetric?
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2017, (September)
27. Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2017, (March) View citations (15)
28. Measurement errors and monetary policy: Then and now
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2017, 79, (C), 66-78 View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper Measurement Errors and Monetary Policy: Then and Now, Working Paper (2015) View citations (4) (2015)
29. The Natural Rate of Unemployment over the Past 100 Years
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017 View citations (3)
30. Two-sided learning and short-run dynamics in a New Keynesian model of the economy
    Economics Letters, 2017, 159, (C), 53-56
    See also Working Paper Two-sided Learning and Short-Run Dynamics in a New Keynesian Model of the Economy, Working Papers (2017) (2017)

2016

31. Beveridge Curve Shifts and Time-Varying Parameter VARs
    Economic Quarterly, 2016, (3Q), 197-226 View citations (10)
32. Drifts and volatilities under measurement error: Assessing monetary policy shocks over the last century
    Quantitative Economics, 2016, 7, (2), 591-611 View citations (23)
33. Indeterminacy and learning: An analysis of monetary policy in the Great Inflation
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2016, 82, (C), 85-106 View citations (32)
    See also Working Paper Indeterminacy and Learning: An Analysis of Monetary Policy in the Great Inflation, Working Paper (2014) View citations (6) (2014)
34. The Burns Disinflation of 1974
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2016, (November)

2015

35. Calculating the Natural Rate of Interest: A Comparison of Two Alternative Approaches
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2015, (Oct) View citations (86)
36. Figuring Out the Fed—Beliefs about Policymakers and Gains from Transparency
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2015, 47, (1), 1-29 View citations (9)
37. Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2015, 59, (C), 142-162 View citations (16)
    See also Working Paper Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty, Working Paper (2013) View citations (11) (2013)
38. Optimized Taylor rules for disinflation when agents are learning
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2015, 72, (C), 131-147 View citations (26)
    See also Working Paper Optimized Taylor Rules for Disinflation When Agents are Learning, Working Paper (2014) View citations (2) (2014)
39. Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions: Specification, Estimation, and an Application
    Economic Quarterly, 2015, (4Q), 323-352 View citations (19)

2014

40. CHOOSING THE VARIABLES TO ESTIMATE SINGULAR DSGE MODELS
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2014, 29, (7), 1099-1117 View citations (27)
    See also Working Paper Choosing the variables to estimate singular DSGE models, Working papers (2013) View citations (16) (2013)
41. Learning about Fiscal Policy Uncertainty
    Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2014, (Jan) View citations (2)

2012

42. What drives inflation in New Keynesian models?
    Economics Letters, 2012, 114, (3), 338-342 View citations (5)

2011

43. A Bayesian approach to optimal monetary policy with parameter and model uncertainty
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2011, 35, (12), 2186-2212 View citations (29)
    See also Working Paper A Bayesian approach to optimal monetary policy with parameter and model uncertainty, Bank of England working papers (2011) View citations (33) (2011)

Chapters

2022

1. Introduction
   A chapter in Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, 2022, vol. 44A, pp 1-4
2. Monetary Policy Across Space and Time
   A chapter in Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, 2022, vol. 44B, pp 37-64 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Monetary Policy across Space and Time, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2018) View citations (2) (2018)
   Journal Article Monetary Policy across Space and Time, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2019) View citations (1) (2019)

Software Items

2022

1. Code and data files for "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information"
   Computer Codes, Review of Economic Dynamics
   See also Journal Article Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2023) View citations (2) (2023)