Details about Karel Mertens

Access statistics for papers by Karel Mertens.

Last updated 2025-04-24. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pme280

Working Papers

2025

1. The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
2. The Social Returns to Public R&D
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2025)
   See also Chapter The Social Returns to Public R&D, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2025) (2025)

2024

3. A Robust Test for Weak Instruments for 2SLS with Multiple Endogenous Regressors
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (7)
4. Dynamic Identification Using System Projections on Instrumental Variables
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (2)
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2022)
5. The Impact of Work from Home on Interstate Migration in the U.S
   On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
6. The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from U.S. Appropriations Shocks
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (2)
7. Why Do WFH Workers Move?
   On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
8. Work from Home and Interstate Migration
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2024)

2023

9. A Narrative Analysis of Federal Appropriations for Research and Development
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (3)

2022

10. A Robust Test for Weak Instruments with Multiple Endogenous Regressors
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (7)
11. Work from Home Before and After the COVID-19 Outbreak
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (13)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2021) View citations (69)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2022) View citations (98)
    See also Journal Article Work from Home before and after the COVID-19 Outbreak, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association (2023) View citations (44) (2023)

2021

12. Measuring Real Activity Using a Weekly Economic Index
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (31)
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2020) View citations (51)
    See also Journal Article Measuring real activity using a weekly economic index, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2022) View citations (24) (2022)

2020

13. Distributional Considerations for Monetary Policy Strategy
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (12)
14. Do Monetary Policy Announcements Shift Household Expectations?
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (25)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2020) View citations (28)
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2019) View citations (15)
15. High Frequency Data and a Weekly Economic Index during the Pandemic
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article High-Frequency Data and a Weekly Economic Index during the Pandemic, AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association (2021) View citations (10) (2021)
16. Mobility and Engagement Following the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (9)
17. Monitoring Real Activity in Real Time: The Weekly Economic Index
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (10)
18. Tracking the COVID-19 Economy with the Weekly Economic Index (WEI)
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (2)
19. U.S. Economic Activity During the Early Weeks of the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (59)

2018

20. The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States: Reply to Jentsch and Lunsford
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (9)
21. The Near Term Growth Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (7)

2017

22. A Narrative Analysis of Mortgage Asset Purchases by Federal Agencies
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (11)
23. The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar US Housing Credit Policy
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (12)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2017) View citations (13)
    Discussion Papers, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) (2017) View citations (15)
    LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library (2017) View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar U.S. Housing Credit Policy, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College (2018) View citations (42) (2018)

2015

24. Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (10)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2013) View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence*, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College (2018) View citations (119) (2018)

2013

25. Marginal Tax Rates and Reported Incomes: New Time Series Evidence
    2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (4)

2012

26. A Reconciliation of SVAR and Narrative Estimates of Tax Multipliers
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (34)
    See also Journal Article A reconciliation of SVAR and narrative estimates of tax multipliers, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2014) View citations (167) (2014)
27. The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States
    2012 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (12)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2011) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2013) View citations (900) (2013)

2011

28. A New Approach to the Estimation of Tax Multipliers
    2011 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
29. Credit Channels in a Liquidity Trap
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (11)
    Also in 2011 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2011) View citations (10)

2010

30. Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated U.S. Tax Policy Shocks
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (12)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2009) View citations (46)
    Working Paper Research, National Bank of Belgium (2009) View citations (29)
    See also Chapter Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2010) View citations (6) (2010)
    Journal Article Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association (2012) View citations (309) (2012)
31. Fiscal Policy in an Expectations Driven Liquidity Trap
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (102)
    See also Journal Article Fiscal Policy in an Expectations-Driven Liquidity Trap, The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd (2014) View citations (235) (2014)
32. Online Appendix to "Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks"
    Online Appendices, Review of Economic Dynamics View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2011) View citations (208) (2011)
33. Technology-Hours Redux: Tax Changes and the Measurement of Technology Shocks
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (19)
    See also Chapter Technology-Hours Redux: Tax Changes and the Measurement of Technology Shocks, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2010) View citations (6) (2010)
    Journal Article Technology-Hours Redux: Tax Changes and the Measurement of Technology Shocks, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press (2011) View citations (22) (2011)

2009

34. Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: A Structural VAR Approach
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (43)
    See also Journal Article Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: A Structural VAR Approach, Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (2010) View citations (166) (2010)
35. Regime Switching Interest Rates and Fluctuations in Emerging Markets
    Economics Working Papers, European University Institute View citations (6)
36. Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (36)
    Also in 2009 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2009) View citations (24)
    See also Journal Article Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2011) View citations (208) (2011)

2008

37. Business cycle analysis and VARMA models
    Working Paper, Norges Bank View citations (2)
    Also in Economics Working Papers, European University Institute (2006) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Business cycle analysis and VARMA models, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2009) View citations (19) (2009)
38. The Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated U.S. Tax Policy Shocks: Theory and Empirical Evidence
    Economics Working Papers, European University Institute View citations (27)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2008) View citations (19)
    2008 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2008) View citations (23)

2007

39. The Role of Expectations in Sudden Stops
    Working Papers, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics View citations (2)

2006

40. How the Removal of Deposit Rate Ceilings Has Changed Monetary Transmission in the US: Theory and Evidence
    Economics Working Papers, European University Institute View citations (5)

Journal Articles

2023

1. Work from Home before and after the COVID-19 Outbreak
   American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2023, 15, (4), 1-39 View citations (44)
   See also Working Paper Work from Home Before and After the COVID-19 Outbreak, Working Papers (2022) View citations (13) (2022)

2022

2. Measuring real activity using a weekly economic index
   Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2022, 37, (4), 667-687 View citations (24)
   See also Working Paper Measuring Real Activity Using a Weekly Economic Index, Working Papers (2021) View citations (31) (2021)

2021

3. High-Frequency Data and a Weekly Economic Index during the Pandemic
   AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2021, 111, 326-30 View citations (10)
   See also Working Paper High Frequency Data and a Weekly Economic Index during the Pandemic, Staff Reports (2020) View citations (4) (2020)

2019

4. State-level implications of federal tax policies: Comments
   Journal of Monetary Economics, 2019, 105, (C), 91-93 View citations (1)
5. The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States: Reply
   American Economic Review, 2019, 109, (7), 2679-91 View citations (32)

2018

6. Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence*
   The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2018, 133, (4), 1803-1884 View citations (119)
   See also Working Paper Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence, CEPR Discussion Papers (2015) View citations (10) (2015)
7. The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar U.S. Housing Credit Policy
   The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2018, 133, (3), 1503-1560 View citations (42)
   See also Working Paper The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar US Housing Credit Policy, NBER Working Papers (2017) View citations (12) (2017)

2014

8. A reconciliation of SVAR and narrative estimates of tax multipliers
   Journal of Monetary Economics, 2014, 68, (S), S1-S19 View citations (167)
   See also Working Paper A Reconciliation of SVAR and Narrative Estimates of Tax Multipliers, CEPR Discussion Papers (2012) View citations (34) (2012)
9. Fiscal Policy in an Expectations-Driven Liquidity Trap
   The Review of Economic Studies, 2014, 81, (4), 1637-1667 View citations (235)
   See also Working Paper Fiscal Policy in an Expectations Driven Liquidity Trap, CEPR Discussion Papers (2010) View citations (102) (2010)

2013

10. The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States
    American Economic Review, 2013, 103, (4), 1212-47 View citations (900)
    See also Working Paper The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States, 2012 Meeting Papers (2012) View citations (12) (2012)

2012

11. Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks
    American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2012, 4, (2), 145-81 View citations (309)
    See also Working Paper Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated U.S. Tax Policy Shocks, NBER Working Papers (2010) View citations (12) (2010)
    Chapter Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks, NBER Chapters, 2010, 145-181 (2010) View citations (6) (2010)

2011

12. Leverage and the Financial Accelerator in a Liquidity Trap
    American Economic Review, 2011, 101, (3), 413-16 View citations (17)
13. Technology-Hours Redux: Tax Changes and the Measurement of Technology Shocks
    NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2011, 7, (1), 41 - 76 View citations (22)
    See also Working Paper Technology-Hours Redux: Tax Changes and the Measurement of Technology Shocks, CEPR Discussion Papers (2010) View citations (19) (2010)
    Chapter Technology-Hours Redux: Tax Changes and the Measurement of Technology Shocks, NBER Chapters, 2010, 41-76 (2010) View citations (6) (2010)
14. The Research Agenda: Karel Mertens and Morten Ravn on Fiscal Policy, Anticipation Effects, Expectations and Crisis
    EconomicDynamics Newsletter, 2011, 12, (2)
15. Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks
    Review of Economic Dynamics, 2011, 14, (1), 27-54 View citations (208)
    See also Working Paper Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks, CEPR Discussion Papers (2009) View citations (36) (2009)
    Working Paper Online Appendix to "Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks", Online Appendices (2010) View citations (1) (2010)
    Software Item Code and data files for "Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks", Computer Codes (2010) (2010)

2010

16. Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: A Structural VAR Approach
    Economic Journal, 2010, 120, (544), 393-413 View citations (166)
    See also Working Paper Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: A Structural VAR Approach, CEPR Discussion Papers (2009) View citations (43) (2009)

2009

17. Business cycle analysis and VARMA models
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2009, 33, (2), 267-282 View citations (19)
    See also Working Paper Business cycle analysis and VARMA models, Working Paper (2008) View citations (2) (2008)

2008

18. Deposit rate ceilings and monetary transmission in the US
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2008, 55, (7), 1290-1302 View citations (28)

Chapters

2025

1. The Social Returns to Public R&D
   A chapter in Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and the Economy, volume 5, 2025
   See also Working Paper The Social Returns to Public R&D, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2025) (2025)

2010

2. Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks
   A chapter in Fiscal Policy (Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar, TAPES), 2010, pp 145-181 View citations (6)
   See also Journal Article Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks, American Economic Association (2012) View citations (309) (2012)
   Working Paper Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated U.S. Tax Policy Shocks, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2010) View citations (12) (2010)
3. Technology-Hours Redux: Tax Changes and the Measurement of Technology Shocks
   A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, 2010, pp 41-76 View citations (6)
   See also Working Paper Technology-Hours Redux: Tax Changes and the Measurement of Technology Shocks, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2010) View citations (19) (2010)
   Journal Article Technology-Hours Redux: Tax Changes and the Measurement of Technology Shocks, University of Chicago Press (2011) View citations (22) (2011)

Software Items

2010

1. Code and data files for "Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks"
   Computer Codes, Review of Economic Dynamics
   See also Journal Article Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2011) View citations (208) (2011)