PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR EXPERT-ADJUSTED FORECASTS

Philip Hans Franses

Advances in Decision Sciences, 2018, vol. 22, issue 1, 308-320

Abstract: This paper proposes a simple method to compute prediction intervals for expert-adjusted forecasts in case the analyst does not have the underlying model forecasts and thus has to create own approximate model forecasts, based on data available to the analyst. An illustration to airline revenues data shows that experts can substantially reduce forecast uncertainty.

Keywords: Prediction intervals; expert-adjusted forecasts; approximate model forecasts; forecast uncertainty; airline revenues (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C52 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aag:wpaper:v:22:y:2018:i:1:p:308-320

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