DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND THE FUTURE OF RESILIENCE PLANNING IN MOLDOVA

Nicholas Gailey (), Olga Gagauz () and Irina Pahomii ()
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Nicholas Gailey: PhD,Wittgenstein Centre for Demography & Global Human Capital International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Olga Gagauz: PhD habilitation in sociology, associate professor, National Institute for Economic Research, Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova
Irina Pahomii: PhD student, Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Demography and Geodemography, National Institute for Economic Research, Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova

Economy and Sociology, 2025, issue 1, 5-18

Abstract: Demographic transformation is a defining global trend, and Moldova is undergoing profound structural shifts that reflect this broader pattern. The country’s population is shrinking, aging, becoming more educated, and more economically active—trends that carry wide-ranging implications for public policy, economic resilience, and long-term development. This paper analyzes how these demographic changes will affect the future demand for critical services and infrastructure by 2050. Using scenario-based population projections, the study estimates population-based demand across four key sectors: education, health, social protection, and physical infrastructure. The analysis distinguishes between a baseline scenario, where current population-to-infrastructure or population-to-service ratios are maintained, and a continued development scenario, where the ratios improve over time. The results reveal that demographic decline creates opportunities to enhance efficiency in sectors like education and housing, while also generating pressure to restructure services in health care and social protection due to population aging. The study highlights the importance of ‘demographic resilience’ as a policy framework—defined as a society’s capacity to anticipate, absorb, and adapt to demographic change through strategic planning and human capital investment. By integrating demographic evidence into cross-sectoral policymaking, Moldova can best position itself for achieving lasting demographic resilience. This study advances the concept of demographic resilience by demonstrating how strategic investment in human capital can offset the challenges of population decline and aging.

Keywords: population projections; public service demand; demographic resilience (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aat:journl:y:2025:i:1:p:5-18

DOI: 10.36004/nier.es.2025.1-01

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