Monetary Policy in a Markov-Switching VECM: Implications for the Cost of Disinflation in Ghana

Richard Ayisi () and Joseph Adu

American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, 2017, vol. 8, issue 2, 53-61

Abstract: Monetary policy assessment in Ghana has been conducted using vector auto-regression. This however, presumes stability of long run outcomes and particularly ignores monetary policy regime changes that has characterized the economy overtime. This study thus introduced the possibility of switches in the long run equilibrium in co-integrated vector auto-regression by allowing both the covariance and weighting matrix in the error-correction term to switch. The study did not find any significant difference in monetary response in the different states. However, significant difference was obtained for the cost of disinflation across states. Though, disinflation cost has declined as the Bank of Ghana shifts from monetary targeting to inflation-targeting regime, overall cost is still high. This has implication on disinflation policy given the development agenda pursue by the country.

Keywords: Monetary Policy; Markov-Switching; Sacrifice Ratio JEL Classification: E31 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:abk:jajeba:ajebasp.2016.53.61

DOI: 10.3844/ajebasp.2016.53.61

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