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S. M. Sergeev (), S. E. Barykin (), N. V. Ostrovskaya () and V. K. Yadykin ()

Strategic decisions and risk management, 2021

Abstract: Commercial activity has always been influenced by the competitive environment and its spread to the online space is the next stage of development and a defining trend for the nearest time horizon. The changes in the business landscape influenced by COVID19 pose new challenges for marketers and entrepreneurs. It is necessary to use the forced sharp increase in online interaction with consumers. The course towards the digital economy determines the use of scientific, mathematical methods to optimize the target indicators of economic activity. These global shifts in business interactions are generating innovative tools for measuring business results and transforming old practices to meet new market realities. This is the basic condition for the sustainability of doing business in any industry. This study is devoted to the development of a theoretical description of the process of multi-stage interaction with a consumer pool. To solve this problem, a mathematical model has been developed, the basis of which is digital information interaction, starting from the stage of determining the target audience and ending with the complete completion of a commercial transaction. This article presents the results of modeling sales funnel, as the basis for the software of a modern market analyst, using a cross-system approach. In contrast to the classical sales funnel, the presented algorithms allow using the multidimensional conversion funnel not only for assessing business results for the reporting period. Thanks to the flow of model arguments in real time, it becomes possible to optimize the business process by moving to the concept of leading economic indicators.In practice, this means the ability to implement effective business planning on digital platforms. The arguments of the mathematical model are Internet statistics, the dynamics of consumer preferences, the history of the business process accumulated in the big data system. At the same time, the means of queuing theory, differential calculus, economic and mathematical modeling are involved, based on indicators such as KPI (Key Performance Indicators), CTR (click-through rate), CR (Conversion rate). This made it possible to formulate the concept of a digital twin of a commercial process and its transformation, convenient for practical applications, into a conversion funnel for embedding into algorithms implemented on a computer.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.17747/2618-947X-2020-3-286-293

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