China's Fiscal Stimulus and the Recession Australia Never Had: Is a Growth Slowdown Now Inevitable?

Creina Day

Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, 2011, vol. 18, issue 1, 23-34

Abstract: China's timely and well-targeted two-year fiscal stimulus was particularly effective in stimulating growth in Australia's commodity exports. Using a constructed series of export volumes to China, this paper finds that the post-stimulus GDP growth contribution from export volumes to China is significant. Had growth in export volumes to China been commensurate with pre-stimulus rates, Australia would have experienced three consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth in a technical recession. China's gradual and uniquely revenue-based unwinding of fiscal stimulus reduces the risk to Australia of an imminent growth slowdown.

Date: 2011
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:acb:agenda:v:18:y:2011:i:1:p:23-34

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