The Effects of Oil Prices and Real Effective Exchange Rate on Turkey’s Foreign Trade Balance: Ardl Boundary Test Approach

Mehmet Ali Polat

Journal of Finance Letters (Maliye ve Finans Yazıları), 2019, vol. 34, issue 112, 149-174

Abstract: Changes in oil prices, holding an important place in import ofturkey, as an external factor and changes in real effective exchangerate as a relatively internal factor play an important role on country’sforeign trade balance.in this study, impacts of oil prices and real effective exchangerate on turkey’s foreign trade balance are analyzed using time seriesanalysis methods with structural break for 1989: m01-2018: m11period. Causality relations between series were analyzed by toda-yamamoto (1995) test; in this context, a causal relationship betweenreal effective exchange rate and economic conjuncture to foreign tradebalance was determined and there was no causal relationship betweenoil prices and foreign trade balance.

Keywords: Oil Prices; Foreign Trade Balance; Real Effective Exchange Rate; Time Series Analysis with Structural Breaks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L95 N75 O24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:acc:malfin:v:34:y:2019:i:112:p:149-174

DOI: 10.33203/mfy.602961

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