Relationships with External Political Actors, and CDS Relationship Between Exchange Rate: The Case of Turkey 2007-2020

Sadi Uzunoğlu, Caner Ozdurak and Serap Dursun
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Sadi Uzunoğlu: Trakya University
Caner Ozdurak: Yedi̇tepe University
Serap Dursun: Trakya University

Journal of Finance Letters (Maliye ve Finans Yazıları), 2020, vol. 35, issue 114, 129-148

Abstract: Analysis and risk measurements of global political developments are carried out competently by different organizations, and the literature within this framework is highly developed. In this context, “Relations with Foreign Political Actors”, which includes relationships with USA and the EU in the first step as well as relations with international organizations such as NATO, the United Nations, the World Bank (WB), the IMF and neighboring countries, is proposed as an efficient tool. The influence of “external political interaction" to economic variables such as foreign currency and CDS has been long discussed in Turkey. From this point of view, the study based on the (DPA) index, which is one of the nine sub-indices that compose the Political Stability Index (SII), will contribute to the literature as it is one of the first studies utilizing these new proposed indices. In this study, the short-term and long-term relationship between DPA, CDS and Exchange Rate variables (1.1.2007-30.3.2020) will be tried to be explained by using Granger Causality Test, Impact-Response Analysis and GARCH models.

Keywords: External Political Actors; CDS; Exchange Rate Granger Causality; ARCH-GARCH (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:acc:malfin:v:35:y:2020:i:114:p:129-148

DOI: 10.33203/mfy.746546

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