The Determinants of Turkey’s Foreign Trade With Selected Countries in Relation With Real Exchange Rate: An Econometric Analysis

Orhan Eren and Ali Osman Gürbüz
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Orhan Eren: Istanbul Commerce University
Ali Osman Gürbüz: Istanbul Commerce University

Journal of Finance Letters (Maliye ve Finans Yazıları), 2020, vol. 35, issue 114, 295-326

Abstract: In this study; the determinants of Turkey’s foreign trade with Russia and Germany is analyzed for 2004:01-2018:11 period. Stationarity of the series are investigated by Kapetanios unit root test and cointegration of the series is by Bounds Testing while long and short-run analyses are carried out by ARDL method. It is determined that increase in reel exchange rate raise exports of Turkey, Marshall-Lerner condition is valid in the foreign trade of Turkey with Russia and Germany, incline in the national income of partner countries increase export of Turkey and the incline in the national income of Turkey increases Turkey’s import. While rise in oil price increases Turkey’s exports to Russia, it decreases Turkey’s export to Germany. Population growth in partner countries increases exports of Turkey and population growth in Turkey raises exports of partner countries. 2008 global economic crisis decreased Turkey’s foreign trade.

Keywords: Bilateral Foreign Trade; Real Exchange Rate; Analysis with Structural Breaks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F14 F41 N70 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:acc:malfin:v:35:y:2020:i:114:p:295-326

DOI: 10.33203/mfy.702783

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