ASSESSMENT OF THE RELIABILITY OF FORECASTS RATING AGENCIES

A. G. Budkevich ()

Russian Journal of Industrial Economics, 2015, issue 4

Abstract: Credit ratings are considered an important forecasting tool at the stock market. This article offers an evaluation technique for ratings’ reliability, based on the comparison of current rating changes with changes in the exchange rate of the corresponding financial instruments in the medium term. In this article, we evaluate the reliability of the sovereign credit ratings of Russia, the USA and Japan. We also evaluate rating forecasts of domestic and foreign agencies regarding several major Russian companies. We conclude that the ratings’ reliability is not very high. Notably, foreign agencies’ evaluations regarding Russia are less reliable than their evaluations of the USA and Japan . The forecasts of international agencies regarding Russian issuers are less precise than the similar forecasts published by Russian agencies.Â

Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ach:journl:y:2015:id:166

DOI: 10.17073/2072-1633-2014-4-121-123

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