Theoretical and practical approaches for demand forecasting in the motorcar industry

S. S. Kabanov () and S. A. Borisov ()

Russian Journal of Industrial Economics, 2015, issue 1

Abstract: The article deals with problems of collection and storage of information which will be subsequentlyprocessed and interpreted when forecasting the demand in the motorcar industry. Socio-economic forecasting is an effective predictor of demand for manufactured products. In this case, the forecasting process is quite complex, since it depends on a large number of both predictable and unpredictable options. To implement and improve forecast accuracy it is necessary to identify the most important factors influencing the projected figure. The article defines the basic macroeconomic, political, legal, market, infrastructure and production factors influencing the change of the potential demand for the products of the motorcar industry. Factors presented in the paper inherit specific peculiarities, they differ from each other, thus it becomes necessary to identify both factors and their qualitative and quantitative description. On the basis of quantitative and qualitative data analysis the methodological approaches to the development of multipliers aredescribed which influence the most significant reasons for the development of the motorcar industry , including the mechanism for assessing the scale of the integral indicator characterizing the macroeconomic conditions of the process. As a practical example of the implementation of the proposed methods of forecasting the results of shortterm forecast for the commercial and passenger segment of the motorcar industry are presented.. For better demonstration of forecast the article provides graphics and radar chart. The article may be of interest both for a wide audience engaged in theoretical aspects of branch prediction and for practitioners working in the relevant field.

Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ach:journl:y:2015:id:263

DOI: 10.17073/2072-1633-2015-1-128-139

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