LONG-TERM STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY FORECASTING METHODOLOGY

A. G. Malanichev (), I. P. Ilyichev () and A. J. Pustov ()

Russian Journal of Industrial Economics, 2015, issue 2

Abstract: Existing techniques of forecasting of the steel-smelting capacities, based on use of the simplified approach to the account of new projects and leading to the overestimated forecasts are presented. It can become the reason of wrong strategic decisions in corporations as level of steel-smelting capacities in the world defines their loading which in turn significantly influences the metal products price. The technique, allowing to predict steel-smelting capacities on the basis of an estimation of probabilities of realisation of new projects is offered. The estimation of probabilities is based on the information on a current stage of realisation of the project, region of an arrangement and an economic condition.

Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ach:journl:y:2015:id:430

DOI: 10.17073/2072-1633-2010-2-16-20

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