INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS ON EXPORT CHANGES OF THE EAEU MEMBER COUNTRIES

Saadat M. Assanseitova (), Vladimir G. Svinukhov () and Elvira V. Kovaleva ()

International Trade and Trade Policy, 2018, issue 1

Abstract: The article examines the impact of some macroeconomic indicators, such as added value in industry, R & D expenditure, average crude oil price, on the export change for the EAEU member countries. For the study the authors used the open statistical databases of the International Monetary Fund, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the World Bank, as well as the statistical offices of the EAEU member countries for the period from 2004 to 2017. Using correlation analysis, the authors establish a connection between the indicators and use them to construct a three-factor regression model. It is shown that the change in exports in a sufficiently high degree depends on the fluctuations in the values of the selected indicators. The authors also analyze the development of the EAEU countries through the dynamics of the gross domestic product, exports, imports, trade turnover and foreign direct investment for the study period, showing the value of exports in the final indicator through a change of its share in GDP and comparing the EAEU states both among themselves and with similar indicator of the leading economically developed countries.Â

Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:acl:journl:y:2018:id:219

DOI: 10.21686/2410-7395-2018-1-7-14

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