Prospects for the Development of Iran's Economy and Foreign Trade: Forecast Estimates Based on Mathematical Modeling

E. S. Petrov (), E. A. Nikolaeva () and M. V. Glinskaya ()

International Trade and Trade Policy, 2024, vol. 10, issue 4

Abstract: The article presents a forecast assessment of the development of the national economy and foreign trade of Iran until 2030, calculated by the authors on the basis of mathematical and systematic analysis of macroeconomic processes and methods of modeling using the Box – Jenkins model (ARIMA). Estimation method: the exact maximum likelihood method. The topic seems relevant due to Iran's joining the BRICS from 2024. Therefore, it is important to predict possible trends in Iran's economic and foreign trade development, firstly, for the country itself, and secondly, for the other BRICS member countries and the association as a whole. The study is updated taking into account the continued increase in global volatility, as well as instability in the world, including Asia and the Islamic world, and the emergence of new threats. The subject is the trends of Iran's economic development as a member of the BRICS. The purpose of the article is to develop a scientifically based forecast of the development of Iran's economy and foreign trade in the medium term. The article identifies potential threats to the development of the Iranian economy. The statistical basis of the study was mainly data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The results of the study can be used to understand the trends of socio-economic and foreign trade development of the country, adjust this development, as well as expand and enrich the theoretical concepts of the world economy. The research and author's calculations are based solely on the current circumstances and current realities, without taking into account any fundamental changes in the politics and economy of the country under study. The author's calculations and conclusions can be useful to economists, entrepreneurs, and researchers as a basis for their further practical and scientific activities.

Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:acl:journl:y:2024:id:729

DOI: 10.21686/2410-7395-2024-4-59-73

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