Transformation of International Trade: Structural Shifts, New Growth Centers, and Institutional Restructuring

E. A. Karagulyan ()

International Trade and Trade Policy, 2026, vol. 12, issue 3

Abstract: The topic's relevance stems from the transition from the era of hyperglobalization to a polycentric model of world trade, which is accompanied by slowing growth rates, regionalization, shifting centers of economic development, and a crisis of multilateral regulatory institutions. The author analyzes the evolution of international trade from the 15th century to 2025, identifying four major historical stages, each characterized by qualitative changes in thegeographic and commodity structure of trade flows. Particular attention is paid to the period following the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, which marked the transition to the current stage of fragmentation and regionalization, as well as the COVID-19 pandemic, which has become a catalyst for structural problems accumulated in the global economy. The paper demonstrates that liberalization and universal WTO rules are being replaced by protectionism, regional trade agreements, and unilateral economic coercion. The share of services and intangible assets in global trade is growing, and new barriers-climate, digital, and technologicalare emerging. Using statistical data from the WTO, UNCTAD, and the World Bank, the author substantiates the conclusion of a paradigm shift: from efficiency to security. The study's findings can be used in developing countries’ foreign economic strategies and assessing prospects for international cooperation.Â

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:acl:journl:y:2026:id:925

DOI: 10.21686/2410-7395-2026-3-21-48

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