Une étude empirique des sources des fluctuations économiques dans le cadre d'un modéle à tendances communes

Frédérique Bec and Jean-Olivier Hairaut
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Jean-Olivier Hairault

Annals of Economics and Statistics, 1993, issue 30, 85-120

Abstract: The estimation of common trends models allows us to shed light on the debate about the source of economic fluctuations in four OECD countries. As one cointegrating relation is found between the real GNP, the government expenditures, the monetary aggregate M1 and the real GNP deflator, three common trends are identified. The supply permanent shock accounts for a large part of business cycle variations of the four variables. However, the innovations in the demand stochastic trends appear highly significant in explaining the short run fluctuations of the real GNP and have persistent effects on its level.

Date: 1993
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:adr:anecst:y:1993:i:30:p:85-120

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