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q de Tobin marginal et transmission des chocs financiers

Laurence Bloch and Benoit Coeuré

Annals of Economics and Statistics, 1994, issue 36, 133-167

Abstract: Empirical studies of physical investment usually rely on Tobin's average q (the market value of the firm divided by the replacement cost of capital), rather than marginal q (the present value of a stream of expected marginal profits) because the latter is unobservable. We build marginal q series in four OECD countries (France, USA, Germany and Japan) from V.A.R. models for financial returns and profit rates. We find that marginal q is the sum of two components: a permanent one related only to the current profit rate and a temporary one which summarizes expectations on future financial and real returns. At last we study the effects of financial or real shocks in the V.A.R., and their transmission through marginal q to investment.

Date: 1994
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