 The Size and Evolution of the Government Spending Multiplier in FranceGuillaume Cléaud, Matthieu Lemoine and Pierre-Alain Pionnier Annals of Economics and Statistics, 2017, issue 127, 95-122 Abstract: Focusing on government spending on private goods and services from 1980 to 2010, we nd that the scal multiplier in France is signi cant and close to 1 on impact, and becomes statistically insigni cant after about 3 years. Moreover, using a time-varying SVAR model, we conclude (1) that this multiplier does not evolve signifi cantly over any time horizon from the beginning of the 1980s onwards and (2) that the variance of shocks hitting the economy evolves more than the model autoregressive parameters. Even in alternative speci cations where Bayesian priors are pushed towards time variation, the main evolution that we uncover is a (nonsignifi cant) decrease in the medium-term spending multiplier, partly linked to the implementation of a more aggressive monetary policy since the 1990s. We fi nd no evidence of an increase in the multiplier during recessions in France. At the very least, business cycle conditions do not seem to be the main driver of the evolution of the government spending multiplier from 1980 to 2010. Keywords: Government Spending Multiplier; Evolution; TV-SVAR (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:adr:anecst:y:2017:i:127:p:95-122 DOI: 10.15609/annaeconstat2009.127.0095 Access Statistics for this article Annals of Economics and Statistics is currently edited by Laurent Linnemer More articles in Annals of Economics and Statistics from GENES Contact information at EDIRC. |
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