Global Uncertainty and International Migration To Western Europe

Hippolyte d'Albis, Ekrame Boubtane and Dramane Coulibaly

Annals of Economics and Statistics, 2022, issue 148, 1-28

Abstract: This article quantifies the effects of increasing global geopolitical uncertainty on the size of migration flows to Western Europe. Uncertainty is measured by the number of victims of terrorist attacks worldwide. The effect on migration flows is quantified through the estimation of vector autoregressive models on a panel of 15 European countries and on France, thanks to an original migration dataset. The estimations suggest that the flows of permanent migrants are generally reduced by global terrorism. In particular, the increase in uncertainty that followed the attacks of September 11, 2001, caused an 8% drop in flows to Europe and a 19% drop in flows to France. The effect of global uncertainty on the flow of asylum seekers depends on the country: on average in Europe, asylum applications increase with terrorism, but for France, they decrease with terrorism. This difference can be explained by the geographical position and border control policies of France.

Keywords: Uncertainty; Terrorism; Migration; September 11 2001 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E20 F22 F52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.jstor.org/stable/48706308 (text/html)

Related works:
Working Paper: Global uncertainty and international migration to western europe (2022)
Working Paper: Global Uncertainty and International Migration to Western Europe (2022)
Working Paper: Global Uncertainty and International Migration to Western Europe (2022)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:adr:anecst:y:2022:i:148:p:1-28

DOI: 10.2307/48706308

Access Statistics for this article

Annals of Economics and Statistics is currently edited by Laurent Linnemer

More articles in Annals of Economics and Statistics from GENES Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Secretariat General () and Laurent Linnemer ().