Forecasting Gasoline Prices Using Consumer Surveys

Soren Anderson, Ryan Kellogg, James Sallee and Richard T. Curtin

American Economic Review, 2011, vol. 101, issue 3, 110-14

Abstract: This paper analyzes the predictive power of a new data set of consumer gasoline price forecasts taken from the Michigan Survey of Consumers (MSC). MSC data generally perform as well as a no-change forecast in predicting future gasoline prices, and they substantially out-perform the no-change forecast during the recent economic crisis, during which time they track futures market prices. Finally, the cross-respondent dispersion of the MSC forecasts increases substantially during the economic crisis, paralleling the large increase in price volatility at this time.

Date: 2011
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