Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015

Carmen Reinhart, Vincent Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch

American Economic Review, 2016, vol. 106, issue 5, 574-80

Abstract: Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data sources. We then document a strong overlap between the ebb and flow of financial capital, the commodity price super-cycle, and sovereign defaults since 1815. The results have implications for today, as many emerging markets are facing a double bust in capital inflows and commodity prices, making them vulnerable to crises.

JEL-codes: E32 F21 F32 F44 N20 Q02 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20161014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (98)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015 (2016)
Working Paper: Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015 (2016)
Working Paper: Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015 (2016)
Working Paper: Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015 (2016)
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