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Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains

Klaus Adam, Albert Marcet and Johannes Beutel

American Economic Review, 2017, vol. 107, issue 8, 2352-2408

Abstract: Investors' subjective capital gains expectations are a key element explaining stock price fluctuations. Survey measures of these expectations display excessive optimism (pessimism) at market peaks (troughs). We formally reject the hypothesis that this is compatible with rational expectations. We then incorporate subjective price beliefs with such properties into a standard asset-pricing model with rational agents (internal rationality). The model gives rise to boom-bust cycles that temporarily delink stock prices from fundamentals and quantitatively replicates many asset-pricing moments. In particular, it matches the observed strong positive correlation between the price dividend ratio and survey return expectations, which cannot be matched by rational expectations.

JEL-codes: D83 D84 G12 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20140205
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Related works:
Working Paper: Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains (2014) Downloads
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