Did US Politicians Expect the China Shock?

Matilde Bombardini, Bingjing Li and Francesco Trebbi

American Economic Review, 2023, vol. 113, issue 1, 174-209

Abstract: Information sets, expectations, and preferences of politicians are fundamental, but unobserved determinants of their policy choices. Employing repeated votes in the US House of Representatives on China's normal trade relations (NTR) status during the two decades straddling China's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession, we apply a moment inequality approach designed to deliver consistent estimates under weak informational assumptions on the information sets of members of Congress. This methodology offers a robust way to test hypotheses about what information politicians have at the time of their decision and to estimate the weight that constituents, ideology, and other factors have in policy making and voting.

JEL-codes: D72 D78 D83 D84 F14 P33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer.20210140 (application/pdf)
https://doi.org/10.3886/E174541V1 (text/html)
https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer.20210140.appx (application/pdf)
https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer.20210140.ds (application/zip)
Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.

Related works:
Working Paper: Did U.S. Politicians Expect the China Shock? (2020)
Working Paper: Did U.S. Politicians Expect the China Shock? (2020)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:113:y:2023:i:1:p:174-209

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.aeaweb.org/journals/subscriptions

DOI: 10.1257/aer.20210140

Access Statistics for this article

American Economic Review is currently edited by Esther Duflo

More articles in American Economic Review from American Economic Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Michael P. Albert ().