Direct and Indirect Effects of Investment Tax Incentives

Adrian Lerche

American Economic Review, 2025, vol. 115, issue 8, 2781-2818

Abstract: This paper estimates the direct effects and indirect spillover effects of investment tax credits on firms. Exploiting a differential tax credit rate change by firm size in the German manufacturing sector, I find that lowering a firm's investment cost by 7.6 percent increases its capital stock by 17.7 percent and employment by 12.0 percent. Positive local spillovers generate one additional manufacturing job for each directly created job, are strongest between firms in industries connected through input-output linkages, and arise within distances of five kilometers. Firms dependent on local consumer demand also increase employment, while within-industry spillovers generate small negative effects.

JEL-codes: D22 H25 H32 J23 L25 L60 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1257/aer.20220656

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