Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show

William Baumol

American Economic Review, 1986, vol. 76, issue 5, 1072-85

Abstract: Maddison's 1870-1979 data are analyzed, showing the historically unprecedented growth in productivity, GDP per capita and exports and the remarkable convergence of productivities of industrialized market economies, with convergence apparently shared by planned economies but not less developed countries. Productivity lag's relation to "deindustrialization," unemployment and balance of payments is examined. The data confirm that U.S. productivity growth fell behind its extraordinary postwar peak but probably not below its long term level. It is also shown that more rapid productivity growth of other countries may only be a normal concommitant of convergence. Copyright 1986 by American Economic Association.

Date: 1986
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