Evolution of Time Preference by Natural Selection

Alan R Rogers

American Economic Review, 1994, vol. 84, issue 3, 460-81

Abstract: This paper entertains the hypothesis that human time preferences are in evolutionary equilibrium (i.e., that no mutation changing time preferences could be favored by natural selection). This hypothesis implies that the marginal rate of substitution (MRS) holding Darwinian fitness constant must equal the MRS holding utility constant. Furthermore, in a market economy, the latter must equal the MRS in exchange. Exploiting these principles, the author finds that the long-term real interest rate should equal ln(2) per generation (about 2 percent per year) and that young adults should discount the future more rapidly than their elders. Copyright 1994 by American Economic Association.

Date: 1994
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