Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment

Antonio Ciccone

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2011, vol. 3, issue 4, 215-27

Abstract: Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on their finding of a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall growth between t — 1 and t — 2. I show that this finding is driven by a (counterintuitive) positive correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t — 2. If lower rainfall levels or negative rainfall shocks increased conflict, MSS's finding should have been due to a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t — 1. In the latest data, conflict is unrelated to rainfall. (JEL D74, E32, O11, O17, O47)

JEL-codes: D74 E32 O11 O17 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
Note: DOI: 10.1257/app.3.4.215
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (121)

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