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The Fall in Global Fertility: A Quantitative Model

Tiloka de Silva and Silvana Tenreyro ()

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2020, vol. 12, issue 3, 77-109

Abstract: Over the past six decades, fertility rates have fallen dramatically in most middle- and low-income countries. To analyze these developments, we study a quantitative model of endogenous human capital and fertility choice, augmented to allow for social norms over family size. We parametrize the model using data on socioeconomic variables and information on funding for population-control policies aimed at affecting social norms and improving access to contraceptives. We simulate the implementation of population-control policies to gauge their contribution to the decline in fertility. We find that policies aimed at altering family-size norms accelerated and strengthened the decline in fertility, which would have otherwise taken place much more gradually.

JEL-codes: J10 J13 J18 J24 O15 Z13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180296

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