Macro Recruiting Intensity from Micro Data

Simon Mongey and Giovanni L. Violante

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2026, vol. 18, issue 2, 1-33

Abstract: We merge QCEW and JOLTS microdata to study firm recruiting intensity across establishments and over time. We show that large heterogeneity in vacancy-filling rates is fully accounted for by differences in gross hiring rates. We develop a theory consistent with these facts and, guided by it, construct a firm-based measure of Aggregate Recruiting Intensity (ARI). ARI is strongly procyclical, driven mainly by declines in recruiting efforts in slack labor markets. We also propose a simple proxy ARI index using publicly available macro data. ARI fluctuations explain about 40 percent of aggregate match-efficiency volatility from 2002 to 2019.

JEL-codes: D22 E32 J23 J41 J63 M51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200022

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