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Emerging Market Currency Excess Returns

Stephen Gilmore and Fumio Hayashi

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2011, vol. 3, issue 4, 85-111

Abstract: We consider the excess return from 20 internationally tradable emerging market (EM) currencies against the US dollar. It has two contributions. First, we document stylized facts about EM currencies. EM currencies have provided significant equity-like excess returns against major currencies, but with low volatility. Picking EM currencies with a relatively high forward premium raises the portfolio return substantially. Second, our calculation incorporates institutional features of the foreign exchange market, such as lags in settling spot contracts, FX swaps, and bid/offer spreads. Transaction costs arising from bid/offer spreads are less than one-fifth of what is typically presumed in the literature. (JEL C58, F31, G15)

JEL-codes: C58 F31 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.3.4.85
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:3:y:2011:i:4:p:85-111