Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters

Emi Nakamura, Jon Steinsson, Robert Barro and José Ursúa

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2013, vol. 5, issue 3, 35-74

Abstract: We estimate an empirical model of consumption disasters using new data on consumption for 24 countries over more than 100 years, and study its implications for asset prices. The model allows for partial recoveries after disasters that unfold over multiple years. We find that roughly half of the drop in consumption due to disasters is subsequently reversed. Our model generates a sizable equity premium from disaster risk, but one that is substantially smaller than in simpler models. It implies that a large value of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is necessary to explain stock-market crashes at the onset of disasters.

JEL-codes: E21 E32 E44 G12 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.5.3.35
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (192)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters (2010)
Working Paper: Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters (2008)
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