Economic Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Commodity Prices
Samuel Bazzi and
Christopher Blattman ()
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2014, vol. 6, issue 4, 1-38
Higher national incomes are correlated with political stability. Is this relationship causal? We test three theories linking income to conflict with new data on export price shocks. Price shocks have no effect on new conflict, even large shocks in high-risk nations. Rising prices, however, weakly lead to shorter, less deadly wars. This evidence contradicts the theory that rising state revenues incentivize state capture, but supports the idea that rising revenues improve counterinsurgency capacity and reduce individual incentives to fight in existing conflicts. Conflict onset and continuation follow different processes. Ignoring this time dependence generates mistaken conclusions about income and instability.
JEL-codes: D72 D74 O13 O17 O19 Q02 Q34 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.6.4.1
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (103) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:6:y:2014:i:4:p:1-38
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Access Statistics for this article
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics is currently edited by Simon Gilchrist
More articles in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics from American Economic Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Michael P. Albert ().