Sovereign Default Risk and Uncertainty Premia

Demian Pouzo and Ignacio Presno

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2016, vol. 8, issue 3, 230-66

Abstract: This paper studies how international investors' concerns about model misspecification affect sovereign bond spreads. We develop a general equilibrium model of sovereign debt with endogenous default wherein investors fear that the probability model of the underlying state of the borrowing economy is misspecified. Consequently, investors demand higher returns on their bond holdings to compensate for the default risk in the context of uncertainty. In contrast with the existing literature on sovereign default, we match the bond spreads dynamics observed in the data together with other business cycle features for Argentina, while preserving the default frequency at historical low levels.

JEL-codes: E43 E44 F34 G12 G21 H63 O16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.20140337
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (37)

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