Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model

Daron Acemoglu, Victor Chernozhukov, Iván Werning and Michael D. Whinston

American Economic Review: Insights, 2021, vol. 3, issue 4, 487-502

Abstract: We study targeted lockdowns in a multigroup SIR model where infection, hospitalization, and fatality rates vary between groups—in particular between the "young," the "middle-aged," and the "old." Our model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of optimal policy. For baseline parameter values for the COVID-19 pandemic applied to the US, we find that optimal policies differentially targeting risk/age groups significantly outperform optimal uniform policies and most of the gains can be realized by having stricter protective measures such as lockdowns on the more vulnerable, old group. Intuitively, a strict and long lockdown for the old both reduces infections and enables less strict lockdowns for the lower-risk groups.

JEL-codes: H51 I12 I18 J13 J14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (124)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aeri.20200590 (application/pdf)
https://doi.org/10.3886/E130626V1 (text/html)
https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aeri.20200590.appx (application/pdf)
https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aeri.20200590.ds (application/zip)
Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.

Related works:
Working Paper: Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multi-Group SIR Model (2020)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aea:aerins:v:3:y:2021:i:4:p:487-502

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.aeaweb.org/journals/subscriptions

DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20200590

Access Statistics for this article

American Economic Review: Insights is currently edited by Amy Finkelstein

More articles in American Economic Review: Insights from American Economic Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Michael P. Albert ().