The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting

Francis Diebold

Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1998, vol. 12, issue 2, 175-192

Abstract: Broadly defined, macroeconomic forecasting is alive and well. Nonstructural forecasting, which is based largely on reduced-form correlations, has always been well and continues to improve. Structural forecasting, which aligns itself with economic theory and hence rises and falls with theory, receded following the decline of Keynesian theory. In recent years, however, powerful new dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory has been developed and structural macroeconomic forecasting is poised for resurgence.

JEL-codes: C53 E17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1998
Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.12.2.175
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (110)

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Related works:
Working Paper: The past, present, and future of macroeconomic forecasting (1997)
Working Paper: The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting (1997)
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