The Incidence of Tariffs: Rates and Reality

Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman

Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2026, vol. 40, issue 3, 123-44

Abstract: In 2025, statutory tariff rates on US imports rose to levels not seen in over one hundred years. What were the implications for prices? On the one hand, shipping lags, exemptions, and enforcement gaps kept the actual implemented rates at only half of the statutory rates, moderating the tariffs' impact. On the other hand, tariff pass-through to US import prices reached 92 percent, so the United States bore a large share of the costs. We study the incidence of the 2018–2019 and 2025 US tariffs and discuss implications for US sourcing, domestic manufacturing costs, and the dollar.

JEL-codes: E16 E31 F13 F14 F31 K33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1257/jep.20251486

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