Evaluating the Fiscal and Distributional Implications of Tariffs

Kyle Pomerleau and Erica York

Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2026, vol. 40, issue 3, 171-92

Abstract: The Trump administration has enacted a series of significant taxes on imports, including an across-the-board tariff on nearly all imports. Tariffs are now expected to raise nearly 1 percent of GDP in revenue. Given tariffs' growing importance as a source of revenue, it is important to understand their implications for federal finances and the wellbeing of households. This paper describes and reviews current revenue and distributional analyses of tariffs.

JEL-codes: E23 E62 F13 G51 H61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1257/jep.20251490

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