 The Future of Nuclear Power After FukushimaPaul Joskow and John E. Parsons Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, 2012, vol. Volume 1, issue Number 2 Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of the Fukushima accident on the future of nuclear power around the world. We begin with a discussion of the "but for" baseline and the much discussed "nuclear renaissance." Our pre-Fukushima benchmark for growth in nuclear generation in the U.S. and other developed countries is much more modest than many bullish forecasts of a big renaissance in new capacity may have suggested. For at least the next decade in developed countries, it is composed primarily of life extensions for many existing reactors, modest uprates of existing reactors as their licenses are extended, and modest levels of new construction. The majority of forecasted new construction is centered in China, Russia and the former states of the FSU, India and South Korea. In analyzing the impact of Fukushima, we break the effect down into two categories: the impact on existing plants, and the impact on the construction of new units. In both cases, we argue that the accident at Fukushima will contribute to a reduction in future trends in the expansion of nuclear energy, but at this time these effects appear to be quite modest at the global level. JEL-codes: F0 (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aen:eeepjl:1_2_a07 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article More articles in Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy from International Association for Energy Economics Contact information at EDIRC. |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.