The Use of NYMEX Options to Forecast Crude Oil Prices

James A. Overdahl and H. Lee Matthews

The Energy Journal, 1988, vol. Volume 9, issue Number 4

Abstract: The recent introduction of traded options on crude oil futures contracts at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) gives energy economists a new tool for forecasting the price of crude oil. Since the pricing of these options requires that market participants assess the probability distribution of future crude oil prices, a properly specified model of option pricing can be used to "back out" this assessment from observed option prices.

JEL-codes: F0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1988
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