Forecasting the Market for Electric Vehicles in California Using Conjoint Analysis

Robin Segal

The Energy Journal, 1995, vol. Volume16, issue Number 3, 89-112

Abstract: Beginning in 1998 a percentage of large auto companies' sales in California must include zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), which at this time art! synonymous with electric vehicles. Data on consumer values and the level of consumer acceptance for alternative fuel vehicles are necessary to determine the practicality of the State's policy. This paper presents the results of a forecast for alternative fuel vehicle purchases in California. This forecast uses conjoint analysis, a multi-attribute utility market forecast methodology developed within the field of marketing research. The forecast yields several types of results, including market simulations of the alternative fuel vehicle market, relative preferences among vehicle attributes, and the identification of market segments most likely to purchase each type of vehicle. The research suggests a market for electric vehicles too small to support California's ZEV sales mandate, and a very, large market for natural gas vehicles. This paper concludes with a discussion of automobile and electric utility industry interests with regard to these forecast market consequences.

JEL-codes: F0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1995
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejarticle.aspx?id=1204 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to IAEE members and subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aen:journl:1995v16-03-a04

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejsearch.aspx

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in The Energy Journal from International Association for Energy Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by David Williams ().