Unravelling Trends and Seasonality: A Structural Time Series Analysis of Transport Oil Demand in the UK and Japan
Lester Hunt () and
The Energy Journal, 2003, vol. Volume24, issue Number 3, 63-96
This paper demonstrates the importance of adequately modelling the Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT) and seasonality when estimating transportation oil demand for the UK and Japan. The structural time series model is therefore employed to allow for a stochastic underlying trend and stochastic seasonals using quarterly data from the early 1970s, for both UK and Japan. It is found that the stochastic seasonals are preferred to the conventional deterministic dummies and, more importantly, the UEDT is found to be highly non-linear for both countries, with periods where it is both upward and downward sloping.
JEL-codes: F0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (46) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Access to full text is restricted to IAEE members and subscribers.
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aen:journl:2003v24-03-a03
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in The Energy Journal from International Association for Energy Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by David Williams ().