Does OPEC Matter? An Econometric Analysis of Oil Prices

Robert K. Kaufmann, Stephane Dees, Pavlos Karadeloglou and Marcelo Sanchez
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Robert K. Kaufmann and Stephane Dees

The Energy Journal, 2004, vol. Volume 25, issue Number 4, 67-90

Abstract: We assess claims that OPEC's ability to influence real oil prices has diminished and that the relationship between real oil prices and OPEC production can be used to test competing hypotheses about OPEC behavior. An econometric analysis indicates that there is a statistically significant relationship among real oil prices, OPEC capacity utilization, OPEC quotas, the degree to which OPEC exceeds these production quotas, and OECD stocks of crude oil. These variables "Granger cause" real oil prices but real oil prices do not "Granger cause" these variables. These results imply that OPEC influences oil prices and that previous models cannot be used to test competing models for OPEC production behavior. The effect of OECD oil stocks on real oil prices indicates that there may be an important externality in private decisions regarding optimal crude oil stocks.

JEL-codes: F0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (146)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejarticle.aspx?id=1447 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to IAEE members and subscribers.

Related works:
Journal Article: Does OPEC Matter? An Econometric Analysis of Oil Prices (2004)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aen:journl:2004v25-04-a04

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejsearch.aspx

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in The Energy Journal from International Association for Energy Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by David Williams ().