Are Decline Rates Really Exponential? Evidence From the UK Continental Shelf

A.G. Kemp and A.S. Kasim

The Energy Journal, 2005, vol. Volume 26, issue Number 1, 27-50

Abstract: Understanding of oil and gas production decline rates is important in order to predict future behaviour and give policy guidelines. Most studies propose exponential and/or hyperbolic decline rates. Econometric techniques are extensively used in the present study to establish that logistic decline rates best fit the UKCS data and that the majority of fields have experienced complex logistic decline. Newer fields with relatively smaller reserves were found to have higher annual mean decline and decline decelerating rates Ð a property that poses both a challenge and an opportunity for the industry.

JEL-codes: F0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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