Investment Propensities under Carbon Policy Uncertainty

Janne Kettunen, Derek W. Bunn and William Blyth, Derek W. Bunn and William Blyth

The Energy Journal, 2011, vol. Volume 32, issue Number 1, 77-118

Abstract: Whether companies invest in new power facilities at a particular point in time, or delay, depends upon the perceived evolution of uncertainties and the investors' attitudes to risk and return. With additional risks emerging through climate change mitigation mechanisms, the propensity to invest may increasingly depend upon how each technology and company is exposed to carbon price uncertainty. We approach this by estimating the cumulative probabilities of investment over time in various technologies as a function of behavioral, policy, financial and market assumptions. Using a multistage stochastic optimization model with exogenous uncertainty in carbon price, we demonstrate that detailed financial analysis with real options and risk constraints can make substantial difference to the investment propensities compared to conventional economic analysis. Further, we show that the effects of different carbon policies and market instruments on these decision propensities depend on the characteristics of the companies and may induce market structure evolution.

JEL-codes: F0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (29)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejarticle.aspx?id=2409 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to IAEE members and subscribers. bers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aen:journl:2011v32-01-a04

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejsearch.aspx

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in The Energy Journal from International Association for Energy Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by David Williams ().