Analyzing and Forecasting Zonal Imbalance Signs in the Italian Electricity Market

Francesco Lisi and Enrico Edoli
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Francesco Lisi (lisif@stat.unipd.it)

The Energy Journal, 2018, vol. Volume 39, issue Number 5

Abstract: In this paper, within the Italian electricity market, we analyse the features and the dynamics of the imbalance sign, defined as the sign of the algebraic sum of energy bought and sold by the national Transmission and System Operator during the real-time balancing of the electric network. The analyses provide evidence that the probability of having a positive (negative) sign exhibits a serial dependence structure and a dependence on the load periods, as well as on past history. Based on this evidence, we build a suitable model for zonal sign dynamics, and we use it for an out-of-sample forecasting exercise concerning the probability of a positive imbalance sign, pt. The results show that the zonal imbalance sign is 'predictable.' An economic evaluation of the benefits of using the proposed model is also provided.

JEL-codes: F0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejarticle.aspx?id=3175 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to IAEE members and subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aen:journl:ej39-5-lisi

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejsearch.aspx

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in The Energy Journal from International Association for Energy Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by David Williams (iaee@iaee.org).